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 Post subject: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 16:31 
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We are about to witness 34wrtt… I believe it would be safe to state that it will be the last minute break. However, I refuse to think that way. Personally, I have found myself contemplating intensively lately about a possibility, for us - humans, to achieve 33wrtt. Thus, with some minor help from other kuskis I tried to draw primary targets on every internal. Those times might (and will) be doable in the future. The real problem lies in our motivation to hoyl and, of course - stylefinding. The later, seems more important. Therefore it was inevitable to take in account "yet to be done styles" while making this list.

As you can see, current wrtt of the project is just below 34.15. So pro's opinions regarding lowering speculative-wrtt even by a tiny bit, are highly appreciated to flourish here.
It is obvious that these times are relatively ez with few minutes/hours of Sl'ing/TAS'ing. But the purpose of all this, is to create targets that are as realistic as possible for human beings.

These primary target times will be updated occasionally as the development of wrtt and discussion in this topic progress. So, this list might serve as a motivator, as well as stupidity-meter showing never-ending failure of speculations.

Code:
  Internal                Target             Current WR        Difference                                Comments

1. Warm Up                                  13,97 [Ben3eee]     [+0,00]      Prediction was 13,97.
2. Flat Track             14,81             14,86               [-0,05]
3. Twin Peaks             17,32             17,50               [-0,18]
4. Over and Under         28,79             28,95               [-0,16]
5. Uphill Battle                            19,79 [Jarkko]      [+0,00]      Prediction was 19,79 (Jarkko's wr by then and still unbeated).
6. Long Haul              29,83             29,91               [-0,08]
7. Hi-Flyer               25,40             26,36 :(            [-0,96]
8. Tag                    20,29             20,50               [-0,21]      Secret Madness moves.
9. Tunnel Terror                            48,86 [Kazan]       [-0,00]      Prediction was 49,06.
10. The Steppes                             10,50 [Spef]        [+0,00]      Prediction was 10,59.
11. Gravity Ride          21,93             22,17               [-0,24]
12. Islands in the Sky    20,45             20,62               [-0,17]
13. Hill Legend                             13,86 [Bjenn]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 13,88 (Xiphias's wr by then).
14. Loop-de-Loop          17,55             17,56               [-0,01]
15. Serpents Tale         46,62             46,63               [-0,01]
16. New Wave            1:20,54           1:22:80               [-2,26]      Over the poles at start [-1,1x]. Less air on landing and 6th apple 2x[-0,5x]
17. Labyrinth                               52,36 [Kazan]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 53,05.
18. Spiral                44,05             44,16               [-0,11]
19. Turnaround            35,46             35,78               [-0,32]
20. Upside Down           55,90             56,46               [-0,56]
21. Hangman                                 14,31 [Nekit]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 14,34.
22. Slalom                38,54             38,55               [-0,01]
23. Quick Round           34,91             35,27               [-0,36]
24. Ramp Frenzy           39,52             39,83               [-0,31]
25. Precarious            23,95             24,11               [-0,16]
26. Circuitous            21,34             21,67               [-0,33]      Less front wheel contact with roof at 18,8x, thus better angle for push.
27. Shelf Life                              32,92 [Spef]        [+0,00]      Prediction was 33,06.
28. Bounce Back                             46,43 [Zweq]        [+0,00]      Prediction was 46,90.
29. Headbanger                              41,04 [Kazan]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 41,50.
30. Pipe                  28,54             28,89               [-0,35]
31. Animal Farm         1:08,23           1:09,86               [-1,63]      Smooth departure from octopus [-0,3x]. No bumps/brakes in mouse cave [-1,0x].
32. Steep Corner                            42,20 [Kazan]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 42,20.
33. Zig-Zag                                 52,73 [Spef]        [+0,00]      Prediction was 53,03.
34. Bumpy Journey         36,04             36,17               [-0,13]
35. Labyrinth Pro       2:08,86           2:11,62               [-2,76]      Dramatic route change or slower version of Kazan's 2:07,63.
36. Fruit in the Den      56,24             56,80               [-0,56]
37. Jaws                  51,41             52,69               [-1,28]
38. Curvaceous            27,20             28,59               [-1,39]      Proper high jump in the end [-1.0x].
39. Haircut               38,13             38,72               [-0,59]
40. Double Trouble      1:19,19           1:19,54               [-0,35]
41. Framework             37,93             38,04               [-0,11]      Wheel pressure at 25,5x.
42. Enduro                                  46,96 [Spef]        [+0,00]      Prediction was 46,97.
43. He-He                 54,91             55,17               [-0,26]
44. Freefall                                11,41 [Ben3eee]     [+0,00]      Prediction was 11,46 (mr's wr by then).
45. Sink                  32,07             32,26               [-0,19]
46. Bowling               50,92             52,22               [-1,30]      Spike-bounce and subsequent wall drive [-0,5x]. Less air in the end [-0,5x].
47. Enigma                19,13             19,14               [-0,01]
48. Downhill              41,20             43,48               [-2,28]      Aggressive ending used in Zweq's 40,00 SL replay [starting at 31,7x].
49. What the Heck         37,17             37,66               [-0,49]      Dramatic route change used in Zweq's 37,01 SL replay.
50. Expert System         49,03             49,67               [-0,64]
51. Tricks Abound         41,21             41,79               [-0,58]
52. Hang Tight            23,99             24,15               [-0,16]
53. Hooked                                  16,94 [Mielz]       [+0,00]      Prediction was 16,99.
54. Apple Harvest       1:09,78           1:12,89               [-3,11]

                    TT - 34:12,67.     TT - 34:37,31            [-00:24,64]


Last edited by Tm on 12 Oct 2017, 10:40, edited 137 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 16:45 
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Some random possibilities that first come to mind (no impsy superbounce stuff etc, just good rides and a bit of stylefinding which has happened or will happen i believe):
06. long haul - 29:30
20. upside down - 55:90
25. precarious - 23:80
27. shelf life - 32:80
30. pipe - bounce finally? the day will come.
33. zig zag - 51:80
43. hehe - 54:90
52. hang tight - 23:80


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 17:23 
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Some 26.xx in Curvaceous should be doable.

The Pipe shortcut will definitely be done someday.

33 wr tt might be accomplished in a couple of decades, but it's more likely that Elma will be dead in the meantime.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 17:27 
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Or will be dead as we know it nowadays, it's hard to say anything atm, there are many ways where to evolve and consequences are impsy to predict :s


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 18:51 
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change warmup to 14.00 and just leave it at that ;)

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 18:51 
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Some depressing thoughts about the future of internals:
- as times are improved, more and more "enigma issues" will inevitably come up
- to fix this and make the game fair, physics need to be fixed and tables reset, which might mean mass loss of interest in internals

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2012, 19:02 
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i'm curious how much the wr tt would go down if the table was reset

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 00:26 
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Lousku wrote:
Some depressing thoughts about the future of internals:
- as times are improved, more and more "enigma issues" will inevitably come up

Let the current record be beaten using a legit bounce, then grant successive records through wide-ranging voting, although it is not sure democracy is suitable in this case.

anpdad wrote:
Or will be dead as we know it nowadays, it's hard to say anything atm, there are many ways where to evolve and consequences are impsy to predict :s

Indeed. I feel like we are on quite-unknown and -unstable grounds. Extrapolation is, and is to remain, a statistical assumption.

What, is to be asked, will the next advance be? Nobody knows, and this is precisely what makes the interesting in the long run.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 01:22 
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i will be very original and write that 33tt will never be done

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 02:12 
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I miss the graph we used to have, of total time in function of time.

Too bad http://www.moposite.com/records_wr_statistics.php lists table numbers, which is useless in and of itself.

Unless someone script-converts table numbers to useable dates, there will be nothing done in that direction. (Power to the graphes!)

milagros wrote:
i will be very original and write that 33tt will never be done

Probably like you say mila, extrapolation would destroy any reasonable hopes. How do you put it in math, a limit or asymptotes? (You see where I'm getting at..)


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 02:45 
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would be likely to happen around 2035 with that twipley

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 03:23 
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i would guess the model predicts it sooner than that, although i wonder how far it will hold without dismantling itself out of another-model friction.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 06:38 
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even now it's possible beat another 5 secs in one month, then next month another 5 secs, if ppl had a bit motivation. wrs just are that bad. after those 10 secs would look a bit harder without new styles. ez 33 anyway, prolly 2020.

prolly need some new tools also. I guess many forget the fact that when wr tt went under 36 in 2007, there was no fps limiter or saveload. had to play animal farm with vsync and keypress delay. with some bounce helper (and small bug acceptance) ez cut nearly 20 secs from new wave and pipe

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Last edited by Zweq on 18 Oct 2012, 06:49, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 06:44 
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I'm with Zweq on this one.

I say 2020-2023 because I suspect tomorrow everyone will quit and then there is no motivation.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 07:32 
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After new EDQ is released every unknown style will be shared, people will try them and maybe a few wrs will be beaten. But after that I have a hard time seeing any remarkable TT drop that will happen. 33 won't happen, not even halfway in 20 years.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 07:52 
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I can see 34:30 in about 5-6 years time but then... idk.

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Last edited by 8-ball on 28 Oct 2012, 16:28, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 11:22 
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i dont see 33... i dont even see 34:15, maybe 34:30 in some 20 years

btw Zweq, as fps limiter was controversial to make it legit, whatthefuck, saveload? bounce helper?
maybe i misunderstanded you but these are clearly cheats and shoulndnt be legit even in 2050AD

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 11:34 
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with sl came all sort of fucked up styles like tunnel terror bounce, so it helps

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 12:53 
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With EOL also came kicking abilities. http://imgflip.com/i/49q1 ;)


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 13:39 
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That is because Smibu made a sl patch that is undetectable, which means everyone has to drive wrs online =) But the patch itself is a very good tool for one another.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 14:44 
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The problem as such is not that Smibu published, more than it is a larger one.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 15:20 
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The problem as SUCH is very that Smibu made an undetectable SL patch plz.
I don't even understand your sentence.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 15:30 
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I do, but his choice of italics are still weird.
Ont: I think 33 will be beaten some day. It will most likely not be before 2020, but some day.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 15:59 
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we'll be laughing at this in some time... :D

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 16:08 
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Smibu spread his sl AFTER hourglass was released which is also undetectable. Why do you blame him.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 16:18 
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Hourglass is detectable however o,o
When mila run his prog with hourglass driven recs it goes CHEATER DETECTED. While nothing on recs driven with smibus sl patch.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 16:20 
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imo Smibu should be thanked, because, detectable or undetectable, before Smibu's sharing plenty of people had s/l and nobody did anything about it; after Smibu released it virtually everybody had it so some serious measures had to be taken to prevent massive cheats - accepting only online-driven times as wrs etc. it's a bit like pointing out what's wrong with the system so that it can be improved.
plus, everyone has an equal chance of supporting himself with sl as a train-tool now, before it was available only to few. as zweq mentioned, it's a valuable tool without which many styles still wouldn't be done
overall Smibu-haters may go to hell, because imo what he did in no way promotes cheating (like proper/harmful cheating, trying to deceive others), but reduces disparities and supports training)

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 17:13 
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Pawq wrote:
imo Smibu should be thanked, because, detectable or undetectable, before Smibu's sharing plenty of people had s/l and nobody did anything about it; after Smibu released it virtually everybody had it so some serious measures had to be taken to prevent massive cheats - accepting only online-driven times as wrs etc. it's a bit like pointing out what's wrong with the system so that it can be improved.
plus, everyone has an equal chance of supporting himself with sl as a train-tool now, before it was available only to few. as zweq mentioned, it's a valuable tool without which many styles still wouldn't be done
overall Smibu-haters may go to hell, because imo what he did in no way promotes cheating (like proper/harmful cheating, trying to deceive others), but reduces disparities and supports training)


Sure it's good that the measures was taken, but, it could have been pointed how in a better way. Rather than just releasing an undetectable cheat tool in the open, creating that gray area between everyone having it and the rules being changed, one could have alerted the right people that could change the rules and much less people would have had it in that gray area. Not to mention the cowardly way he spread it, via webchat thinking he could be anonymous, rather than standing behind what he did.

But I don't want to hate on people forever, it's water under the bridge now. Whatever happened happened.


33 wr tt: nah

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 17:37 
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That's a good point, although NOTHING would ever happen that way. No one would give a single fuck and everyone would just sit by and hope that it doesn't get spread and that someone else doesn't decide to make an undetectable SL for their personal use...

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 17:46 
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Some clarifications.
Pawq, not sure about many people having sl before it was released by smibu. I know about 7 russians (including me) who had it, and it was detectable, and only like 2 of them actually played the game. Tell about more ppl kthx. But of course hourglass was out and tasvideos is a big site, so spreading was inevitable, but this is not the point.
Bjenn, hourglass is detectable with standard configuration, but you can easily change some values to make it undetectable. It loses ability to go in slowmo and you can't easily fix old runs (they go out of sync). Knowing the reason why it is detectable in the first place makes it obvious on how to remedy the problem, but i'm not telling :p
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one could have alerted the right people that could change the rules and much less people would have had it in that gray area

Imo the blatant in-your-face way worked better and quicker, even though Smibu presented it in a silly fashion. Simple alerting doesnt sound intimidating enough. For example, making hourglass sync-stable AND undetectable requires only few additional lines of code (it's open-source), so that everyone with some knowledge of C is now theoretically able to record pseudohoyl sessions offline and then replay them online without anyone noticing anything. But who cares about such improbable threat?
Little fun fact - i remember having told mila years ago about a cheated wr in an internals table and he just didn't care about it. That wr is still not removed btw, because it was made by an apparently undetectable tool (or maybe it is detectable, but no one researched it seems) by someone who isn't playing anymore. So yeah, nothing can be proven, and sadly i'm one of 2 people who were personally told by the wr maker about it, and it's not enough of a proof.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 17:57 
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After reading anpdad's post I've changed my opinion. 33 wr tt will happen in a few months.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 18:47 
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anpdad wrote:
I remember having told mila years ago about a cheated wr in an internals table and he just didn't care about it.
I told abula, if that's enough:)

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2012, 18:49 
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aww didn't know about that :s


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 00:05 
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ez 33 if you spread all wr recs/sl ideas/mila's tt project, just sayin'

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 13:54 
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milagros wrote:
i will be very original and write that 33tt will never be done

when you share recs, it can be.

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 16:26 
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anpdad wrote:
[...] a cheated wr in an internals table [...] that wr is still not removed [...] nothing can be proven [...] people were personally told by the wr maker about it [...]

It real sucks to know that the current table contains some dirt. It devalues so much, from the work of current internalists to the next EDQ, passing through scene enthusiasm and table credibleness.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 16:50 
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prolly table #172. thats over 8 years ago god damnit

twipley: shatefak

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 17:15 
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If you don't feel that way, then I wonder how you feel.

At least this is how you feel if I were you... which I'm not. But then, I wonder how you feel.

EDIT: are we talking about its presence in current table, or only in past tables? (I thought it was in current table.)


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 17:19 
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only in past obviously, and ye it's 172, fake nick of course (try to solve it).
On topic: sink 31,90 >:D


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 17:25 
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tisjoris, of course. :)


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2012, 17:55 
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how sink

plz beat wr and someone take a look at slalom also >:D

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2012, 07:22 
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Location: Deep in your Imagination, Twirling your Dreams and Weaving your thoughts.
i wander it is Karlis?

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2012, 12:06 
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8 years is past statute of limitation or something, what can you do :-)

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2012, 18:18 
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Half sec cut update. Little by little.


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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2012, 19:56 
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Zweq wrote:
...wrs just are that bad. ...


had a good laugh here :)

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2012, 03:10 
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It's mr's Freefall. xiit

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 28 Oct 2012, 10:56 
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Code:
Madness    0:00,20       

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 1 Nov 2012, 10:16 
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some educated guesses on times that will be achieved in the next years:

Level 3, Twin Peaks:
00:17:40 Zamppe
Level 6, Long Haul:
00:30:00
Level 7, Hi Flyer:
00:26:05
Level 9, Tunnel Terror:
00:49:66
Level 11, Gravity Ride:
00:22:00
Level 15, Serpents Tale:
00:47:27
Level 19, Turnaround:
00:35:52
Level 26, Circuitous:
00:21:49
Level 28, Bounce Back:
00:47:05
Level 31, Animal Farm:
01:09:05
Level 36, Fruit in the Den:
00:56:85
Level 37, Jaws:
00:52:53
Level 46, Bowling:
00:51:62
Level 50, Expert System:
00:49:13
Level 52, Hang Tight:
00:24:20

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 1 Nov 2012, 10:31 
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donno about others but 6, 26 and 36 seems very ok guesses. evil 666 levs :p

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 Post subject: Re: 33wrtt project
PostPosted: 1 Nov 2012, 14:19 
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Kuski
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guess who is working on twin peaks. :)


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