Corona Virus: will we all die?

Discuss, argue, whine, talk but not about Elma.

Moderator: Moporators

User avatar
ROKKEBOL
Kuski
Posts: 358
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 08:02
Team: BAP
Location: asdf
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL » 27 Mar 2020, 19:53

Well, no need to test everyone, but only those, who have symptoms like fever, coughing, difficulties in breathing, osv and etc. So the tests can give diagnoses and doctors will apply necessary actions.
Image

Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 27 Mar 2020, 20:37

I assume the real death rate is around 3%. In korea they tested hundreds of thousands people and tracked everyone, who has to virus to get the possible new candidates, who were then tested. You can assume the real number of cases is very close to the official. Current death rate is around 1.5%, but you might have spotted that 1-2 weeks ago they had only ~20 dead and now it's 141. The median time of death since the symptoms show up is 24 days (wiki says). So you can assume it might grow to ~3% eventually. The numebr might be much higher in countries where the health system partially collapsed (italy, spain, ..)
[carebox]

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 27 Mar 2020, 23:14

ROKKEBOL wrote:
27 Mar 2020, 19:53
Well, no need to test everyone, but only those, who have symptoms like fever, coughing, difficulties in breathing, osv and etc. So the tests can give diagnoses and doctors will apply necessary actions.
No, because those who don't have symptoms might still carry the virus and pass it over. Ideally would need to test 100.000% of population simultaneously, put everyone in cages until renaults come back, then put all the positive in one cage and release the rest :P

User avatar
nick-o-matic
Kuski
Posts: 851
Joined: 27 Jan 2007, 12:53
Location: Lappeenranta

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by nick-o-matic » 29 Mar 2020, 17:38

oops
Last edited by nick-o-matic on 29 Mar 2020, 17:48, edited 2 times in total.

User avatar
nick-o-matic
Kuski
Posts: 851
Joined: 27 Jan 2007, 12:53
Location: Lappeenranta

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by nick-o-matic » 29 Mar 2020, 17:47

During these tough times, it is time to remind ourselves of the old wisdom
if see people coughign it's a good idea to avoid digging nose after that

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 31 Mar 2020, 23:37

the current situation can easily last for 2 years
i don't see anything changing it, shit already hit the fan
[carebox]

User avatar
Madness
35mins club
Posts: 2166
Joined: 1 Jan 2009, 10:51
Location: UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Madness » 1 Apr 2020, 00:15

Why don't they just test everybody and lock up the infected ones. Would be far cheaper than closing everything and paying 80% of salary to everybody on temporary leave because of this like in the UK.

Either way, I am sure everything will be all right once people run out of space and cannot stockpile toilet paper anymore. :beer:
Image

User avatar
tej
Kuski
Posts: 76
Joined: 18 Apr 2018, 20:16

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by tej » 1 Apr 2020, 17:38

Madness wrote:
1 Apr 2020, 00:15
Why don't they just test everybody and lock up the infected ones. Would be far cheaper than closing everything and paying 80% of salary to everybody on temporary leave because of this like in the UK.

Either way, I am sure everything will be all right once people run out of space and cannot stockpile toilet paper anymore. :beer:
I think bcuz we don't have the capacity to do 7 billion tests.

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 1 Apr 2020, 21:09

Madness wrote:
1 Apr 2020, 00:15
Why don't they just test everybody and lock up the infected ones.
As I already said, this wouldn't help, unless you can:
pawq wrote:
27 Mar 2020, 23:14
test 100.000% of population simultaneously, put everyone in cages until renaults come back, then put all the positive in one cage and release the rest
Otherwise people will keep spreading it until they get tested, plus, as tej said, nobody has or is able to have the capacity to test everyone.

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 2 Apr 2020, 11:41

there is only one solution (wuhan style) - lockdown for 4 weeks and food delivered by army in the bunny suits
every country will eventually have to go through this, the sooner the better
[carebox]

User avatar
Marcin
Kuski
Posts: 84
Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 09:19
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Marcin » 2 Apr 2020, 13:04

Corona Virus timeline (updated)

CHINA Nov, 2002: After its experience with the SARS outbreak in Guangdong Province in 2002, China implemented a rapid response protocol for infectious diseases. The protocol empowered the Health Ministry to assemble professional and managerial help from across the country, established an emergency response coordinating team, prepared funding and authorization for supplies, equipment and emergency health care facilities, anticipating that existing hospitals would be overwhelmed.

USA April, 2004: Patent Application

USA Nov, 2006: Patent SARS coronavirus. Abstract: An outbreak of a virulent respiratory virus, now known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), was identified in Hong Kong, China and a growing number of countries around the world in 2003. The invention relates to nucleic acids and proteins from the SARS coronavirus. These nucleic acids and proteins can be used in the preparation and manufacture of vaccine formulations, diagnostic reagents, kits, etc. The invention also provides methods for treating SARS by administering small molecule antiviral compounds, as well as methods of identifying potent small molecules for the treatment of SARS.

USA Sep 2008: Though the first cases of H1N1 swine flu were reported in California and Texas in late March, 2009, subsequent genetic analysis suggests that it began six months before it was first detected, in September, 2008, at the start of the ‘flu season. The CDC admits, below, that earlier Covid-19 cases went undetected, too

USA & NETHERLANDS Dec 2011 Researchers studying a potentially more lethal, airborne version of bird flu have suspended their studies because of concerns the mutant virus they have created could be used as a devastating form of bioterrorism or accidentally escape the lab.

TWO YEAR GAP

UK, Saudi Arabia, Jordan Feb/Mar 2013 New Mystery Virus kills 9th Victim, This virus is in the family of coronaviruses, a new virus, previously unknown to mankind, Symptoms of the disease consist of respiratory distress, fever, coughing and difficulty in breathing.

USA Jul, 2015: Patent application lodged for attenuated coronavirus by The Pirbright Institute (UK), application granted November 2018. Pirbright Institute names WHO and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as stakeholders.

USA March, 2016: Gates Foundation bets big on Moderna’s mRNA technology
"The announcement of the Gates Foundation grant comes just weeks after Moderna revealed two new partnerships focused on leveraging its mRNA platform. Merck will license a vaccine program from Moderna to be used against an undisclosed viral target, and AstraZeneca entered a collaboration with Moderna to discover, co- develop and co-commercialize mRNA therapeutic candidates for the treatment of a range of cancers. Both agreements build on ongoing collaborations with the two pharmaceutical companies.


USA Jun, 2017: World Bank issues Pandemic Bonds for emergency pandemic financing and pandemic insurance.

USA May, 2018: The President Fires the entire US Pandemic Response Team and does not replace it.

USA Nov 2018: Patent application for attenuated coronavirus (see July 2015) granted.

USA Apr, 2019: An outbreak of severe vaping-associated lung illness is exclusively confined to the United States, despite the fact that the majority of vapers live outside the US.

USA Jul 3, 2019: The CDC halts research at Fort Detrick, citing “national security reasons” for not releasing information about its decision.

USA Jul 14, 2019: Chinese researcher escorted from infectious disease lab amid RCMP investigation. Public Health Agency of Canada describes it as a possible ‘policy breach,’ no risk to Canadian public. The first Chinese to discover or warn about the Covid-19 outbreak?

AUSTRALIA Aug, 2019: Australia Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza released.

USA Aug, 2019: First Vaping Death Reported by Health Officials “Amid the lack of information, investigators scrambled to find shared links to the respiratory problems. Officials said earlier this week that many patients, most of whom were adolescents or young adults, had described difficulty breathing, chest pain, vomiting and fatigue,” the precise symptoms of Covid-19 infection.

USA Sep 2019: Recently (2020), a team of Chinese researchers claimed to demonstrate that Covid-19 was born in September, 2019. The British researchers who had discovered the earlier H1N1 date are not convinced.

ITALY Oct - Dec, 2019: Adriano Decarli, an epidemiologist and medical statistics professor at the University of Milan, said there had been a “significant” increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in the areas of Milan and Lodi between October and December (See entry March 27, 2020)

USA Oct 18, 2019: The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. Event 201 simulated an "outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic that leaves 65 million dead.

CHINA Oct 27, 2019 At a peak of international tension and the ‘flu season in the northern hemisphere, on the eve of China’s biggest travel season, 300 American military servicemen visit Wuhan for the International Military Games.

USA Dec, 2019. A Chinese medical researcher is arrested in Boston trying to take biological samples back to China. Zheng Zaosong, of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, confessed to taking material from a lab in Boston. FBI Special Agent Kara Spice found 21 wrapped vials containing a “brown liquid” that appeared to be “biological material” (samples of post-mortem lung tissue look like ‘brown liquid’). Zheng’s roommate, also a researcher, told FBI agents that two labmates of Zheng had succeeded in getting specimens to China. China, presumably, now went on high alert.

USA/CHINA Dec 2019: Chinese researchers in the USA informed China’s Health Ministry of a novel Coronavirus outbreak there, triggering a readiness alert nationwide. The WHO describes what happened next, “In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile, and aggressive disease containment effort in history…China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic.”

CHINA Dec 26, 2019: Jixian Zhang detects four anomalous pneumonia infections in Wuhan and reports them to the provincial CDC the next day. The provincial authorities immediately inform the national CDC which prepares to implement the pandemic response protocols.

GERMANY Dec 25-Dec 31, 2019: Charité (clinic in Berlin) starts developing test for the new Corona virus after first informal information reaches them. Later sends prototype to China, "unnamed colleagues" in China confirm that it works. WHO then publishes the test on its website as the first test. China develops own test, but demand is high elsewhere - even in Southeast Asia.

CHINA Dec 30, 2019: China’s national CDC notifies the WHO

CHINA Dec 31, 2019: WHO reports Zhang’s discovery to the world.

MALAYSIA Jan 5, 2020: Malaysia’s Assistant to the Prime Minister, Matthias Chang, speculates that the US is waging biological warfare on China.

USA Jan 6: Infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, agrees, “We are on track to have a season like the 2017-2018 season,” when 80,000 Americans died of flu complications. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a travel notice for Wuhan, China due to the spreading coronavirus

CHINA January 7: China identifies the virus as 2019-nCov and confirms it five days later. President Xi tells officials that the country is on a ‘war footing’

USA Jan 7: The CDC established a coronavirus incident management system to better share and respond to information about the virus

USA Jan 11: The CDC issued a Level I travel health notice for Wuhan, China

CHINA Jan 13: China makes the first 2019-nCov test kits available.

USA Jan 17: The CDC began implementing public health entry screening at the 3 U.S. airports that received the most travelers from Wuhan – San Francisco, New York JFK, and Los Angeles

USA Jan 19: A 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV. By Jan. 30, the patient’s symptoms had resolved, according to a New England Journal of Medicine paper. Snohomish County officials allowed him to leave home isolation three weeks later.

USA Jan 20: Dr Fauci announces the National Institutes of Health is already working on the development of a vaccine for the coronavirus

USA Jan 21: The CDC activated its emergency operations center to provide ongoing support to the coronavirus response

USA Jan 23: The CDC sought a “special emergency authorization” from the FDA to allow states to use its newly developed coronavirus test

CHINA Jan 25: Construction begins on a 1,000 bed intensive care hospital in Wuhan.

CHINA Jan 26: China extends Spring Festival holiday to contain the outbreak.

USA Jan 27: The CDC issued a level III travel health notice urging Americans to avoid all nonessential travel to China due to the coronavirus

USA Jan 28: Harvard Chemistry Professor Arrested, Handcuffed, And Accused Of Lying About Ties To China. Charles Lieber, Chair of Harvard’s Department of Chemical Biology, led a Chinese research group focusing on the use of nanotechnology to identify viruses.

USA Jan 29: The White House announced the formation of the Coronavirus Task Force to help monitor and contain the spread of the virus and provide updates to the President

USA Jan 31: The Trump Administration:Declared the coronavirus a public health emergency; Announced Chinese travel restrictions; Suspended entry into the United States for foreign nationals who pose a risk of transmitting the coronavirus. The Department of Homeland Security took critical steps to funnel all flights from China into just 7 domestic U.S. airports

USA Feb 3: The CDC had a team ready to travel to China to obtain critical information on the novel coronavirus, but were in the U.S. awaiting permission to enter by the Chinese government

USA Feb 4: President Trump vowed in his State of the Union Address to “take all necessary steps” to protect Americans from the coronavirus

CHINA Feb 5: First patients moved into new 1,000 bed intensive care hospital.

USA Feb 6: The CDC began shipping CDC-Developed test kits for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus to U.S. and international labs

USA Feb 9: The White House Coronavirus Task Force briefed governors from across the nation at the National Governors’ Association Meeting in Washington

USA Feb 11: The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) expanded a partnership with Janssen Research & Development to “expedite the development” of a coronavirus vaccine

USA Feb 12: The U.S. shipped test kits for the 2019 novel coronavirus to approximately 30 countries who lacked the necessary reagents and other materials; The CDC was prepared to travel to China but had yet to receive permission from the Chinese government

USA Feb 14: The CDC began working with five labs to conduct “community-based influenza surveillance” to study and detect the spread of coronavirus

USA Feb 18: HHS announced it would engage with Sanofi Pasteur in an effort to quickly develop a coronavirus vaccine and to develop treatment for coronavirus infections

CHINA Feb 23. Chinese scientists found genomic evidence that the seafood market in Wuhan was not the source of the novel coronavirus. Their genetic data suggests the virus was introduced from elsewhere and had already circulated widely among humans in Wuhan before December 2019, probably beginning in mid- to late November.

USA Feb 24: The Trump Administration sent a letter to Congress requesting at least $2.5 billion to help combat the spread of the coronavirus

USA Feb 26: President Trump discussed coronavirus containment efforts with Indian PM Modi and updated the press on his Administration’s containment efforts in the U.S. during his state visit to India

CHINA Feb 27: On Taiwan TV a prominent virologist explained flow charts suggesting that the coronavirus originated in the US.

USA Feb 29: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) allowed certified labs to develop and begin testing coronavirus testing kits while reviewing pending applications. The Trump Administration:Announced a level 4 travel advisory to areas of Italy and South Korea; Barred all travel to Iran; Barred the entry of foreign citizens who visited Iran in the last 14 days

USA Mar 3: The Director General of the WHO announced: "While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected." This was patently false. The coronavirus mortality rate reported by the media as stated by Dr. Ghebreyesus is completely inaccurate as all subsequent numbers show. The CDC lifted federal restrictions on coronavirus testing to allow any American to be tested for coronavirus, “subject to doctor’s orders.” The White House announced President Trump donated his fourth quarter salary to fight the coronavirus!

CHINA Mar 4: February rail freight loadings rise 4.5% YOY.

USA Mar 4: The Trump Administration announced the purchase of $500 million N95 respirators over the next 18 months to respond to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Secretary Azar announced that HHS was transferring $35 million to the CDC to help state and local communities that have been impacted most by the coronavirus

CHINA Mar 5: Shipments to foreign JIT customers upgraded: government subsidizes upgrades from sea to rail delivery and from rail to air delivery.

USA Mar 6: Question: How did the virus come to the United States? Answer: “The first known patients in the U.S. contracted the virus while traveling in other countries or after exposure to someone who had been to China or one of the other affected areas. But now, a few cases here cannot be traced to these risk factors. This is concerning because it suggests the illness may be spreading across communities for which the source of infection is unknown, which we call community spread/transmission. Dr. Emily Landon, spokesperson, U Chicago School of Medicine. President Trump signed an $8.3 billion bill to fight the coronavirus outbreak. The bill provides $7.76 billion to federal, state, & local agencies to combat the coronavirus and authorizes an additional $500 million in waivers for Medicare telehealth restrictions

USA Mar 9: HHS staffers often weren’t informed about coronavirus developments because they didn’t have adequate clearance. He said he was told that the matters were classified “because it had to do with China.”

USA Mar 9: President Trump called on Congress to pass a payroll tax cut over coronavirus

USA Mar 10: President Trump and VP Pence met with top health insurance companies and secured a commitment to waive co-pays for coronavirus testing

USA Mar 11: White House classifies coronavirus deliberations. The meetings at HHS were held in a secure area called a “Sensitive Compartmentalized Information Facility,” or SCIF, usually reserved for intelligence and military operations. HHS has SCIFs because theoretically it would play a major role in biowarfare or chemical attacks.

USA Mar 11: President Trump: Announced travel restrictions on foreigners who had visited Europe in the last 14 days; Directed the Small Business Administration to issue low-interest loans to affected small businesses and called on congress to increase this fund by $50bil

CHINA Mar 10: Government organizes and subsidizes bus, rail and air transport for two hundred million migrant workers to return to urban jobs.

USA Mar 12,: CDC director Robert Redfield admits to a House Oversight Committee that some Americans who were diagnosed as dying from influenza tested positive for Covid-19 posthumously.

CHINA Mar 13: Chinese FM’s Lijian Zhao demands US authorities reveal what they’re hiding about the origins of Covid-19. “When did patient zero begin in the US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make your data public! The US owes us an explanation!”

CHINA Mar 16: Ninety percent of businesses expected to resume full operations. All Apple stores open.

USA Mar 18: HHS temporarily suspended a regulation that prevents doctors from practicing across state lines

CHINA Mar 19: No new corona virus cases.

USA Mar 19: President Trump Announced: Very encouraging progress shown by anti-malaria drug Hydroxychloroquine for fighting coronavirus; Carnival Cruise Lines will make ships available for use as hospitals in impacted areas to use for non-coronavirus patients; Vice President Pence announced tens of thousands of ventilators have been identified that can be converted to treat patients; The State Department issued a global level 4 health advisory, telling Americans to avoid all international travel due to coronavirus; President Trump directed FEMA to take the lead on the Federal Government’s coronavirus response & visited FEMA HQ with Vice President Pence for a video call with Governors

USA Mar 20: The U.S. and Mexico agreed to mutually restrict nonessential cross-border traffic; Secretary Mnuchin announced at the direction of President Trump that tax day will be moved from April 15 to July 15 for all taxpayers and businesses; President Trump: Spoke with Sen. Schumer about coronavirus response & stimulus measures; Held a call with over 12,000 small business owners to discuss relief efforts; Announced the CDC will invoke Title 42 to provide border patrol with tools to secure the borders. The Department of Education announced it will: Not enforce standardized testing requirements for the remainder of the school year; allow federal student loan borrowers to stop payments without penalty for 60 days. Secretary Azar announced: FEMA is coordinating and assisting coronavirus testing at labs across the country; The CDC is suspending all illegal entries to the country based on the public health threat, via Section 362 of the Public Health & Security Act; sent a letter to all 50 Governors announcing that the federal government is buying and making available 200,000 testing swabs

ITALY, March 27. Italian scientists investigate possible earlier emergence of coronavirus
Adriano Decarli, an epidemiologist and medical statistics professor at the University of Milan, said there had been a “significant” increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in the areas of Milan and Lodi between October and December last year.

He told Reuters he could not give exact figures but “hundreds” more people than usual had been taken to hospital in the last three months of 2019 in those areas - two of Lombardy’s worst hit cities - with pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, and some of those had died. (see entry Oct-Dec 2019)

US, March 30: The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson
The Trump administration is spending nearly half a billion dollars on one company in the race to find a coronavirus vaccine.

That’s according to a $456 million order with Johnson & Johnson’s Pharmaceuticals arm Janssen, which specified a “new vaccine asset for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19),” Forbes found. It’s the largest reported amount spent on a vaccine project to date, even though the pharma giant hasn’t yet started any clinical trials as other firms have.

The deal was signed with the Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) on March 27, 2020. It followed another order, made as part of the same contract with Janssen, for $150 million on March 20, 2020, for a “new antiviral” for COVID-19.

A spokesperson from Johnson & Johnson didn’t provide any more details on the specific order, but confirmed the $456 million award related to a collaboration with ASPR’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), as announced in February. That work was built on previous contracts for developing countermeasures for other influenzas. The value of the coronavirus-specific work hadn’t previously been revealed and is the largest known contract for a coronavirus vaccine to date.

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 2 Apr 2020, 18:42

It may sound cold, but do you ever just open everything back up and whoever dies, dies? You cannot tell me the thought hasnt crossed your mind.
God Bless America

User avatar
nick-o-matic
Kuski
Posts: 851
Joined: 27 Jan 2007, 12:53
Location: Lappeenranta

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by nick-o-matic » 3 Apr 2020, 09:29

gimp wrote:
2 Apr 2020, 18:42
It may sound cold, but do you ever just open everything back up and whoever dies, dies? You cannot tell me the thought hasnt crossed your mind.
Of course. But then again this virus is kinda bad. So far pretty many countries with that philosophy have eventually went to the total lockdown mode after seeing what is starting to happen. Letting this virus to go through the population would lead to immense sorrow, and on top of that possibly to total chaos and anarchy and even worse shock to the economy.

One thing that demonstrates how infectious this virus is that the seasonal influenza has been pretty much eliminated from the lockdown countries, but corona is still going strong in most of these countries.

User avatar
Kopaka
39mins club
Posts: 6509
Joined: 23 May 2002, 13:59
Team: LAME
Location: In a northern danish city beating YOUR record.
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Kopaka » 3 Apr 2020, 14:09

gimp wrote:
2 Apr 2020, 18:42
It may sound cold, but do you ever just open everything back up and whoever dies, dies? You cannot tell me the thought hasnt crossed your mind.
Would you sacrifice your own life if it meant a 1000 people would be economically safe? If you can't say yes to that your suggestion sort of rings hollow. Also what nom said.

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 3 Apr 2020, 15:26

ppl that require ventilation would not be very productive
[carebox]

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 3 Apr 2020, 15:33

What nom said. It would only be anywhere near reasonable when such a large proportion of the world's population gets infected that it becomes impossible to contain the virus, regardless of the measures. According to people who supposedly know their shit, we're not there yet (or anywhere near).

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 4 Apr 2020, 07:42

Kopaka wrote:
3 Apr 2020, 14:09
gimp wrote:
2 Apr 2020, 18:42
It may sound cold, but do you ever just open everything back up and whoever dies, dies? You cannot tell me the thought hasnt crossed your mind.
Would you sacrifice your own life if it meant a 1000 people would be economically safe? If you can't say yes to that your suggestion sort of rings hollow. Also what nom said.
No... I am too selfish. i may sacrifice my life if it meant saving a younger persons life, since the impact feels more direct, but hard to say if i really would if i were in that position, emotions would be different.

I am pretty utilitarian when it comes to questions of "the greater good". I was thinking letting the virus spread may help the economy and inadvertently cause less suffering. it is a good point if the economy will suffer by letting it spread anyway, might as well contain it in that scenario. it is a complex issue, and i am glad we can have peaceful discussion and listen to eachothers opinions.
God Bless America

User avatar
Marcin
Kuski
Posts: 84
Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 09:19
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Marcin » 4 Apr 2020, 17:44

Dear citizens,

we have some very disturbing news to share. We have discovered a new coronavirus and found out that when old and sick people get infected with it, they often die. This is unprecedented! We must put a stop to this immediately, so from now on, you will not be allowed to go out whenever you want, you will have to wear masks outside, and you will keep at least a 2m distance from one another! We will shut down anything that's non-essential to prevent this disease from killing old and sick people. They're the most important people we have!

This will destroy the economy, but it has to be done. More than 3,000 people died from this virus in China in two months! Do you know how long it normally takes for 3,000 people to die in China? Well, about 3 hours, but that's not the point! We can't have this virus kill old and sick people. It's been killing some 400 people a day! The flu only kills about 1,300 people a day, so you can see how this is much worse. The flu is OK. We know the flu. It doesn't bother us. Also cancer kills 22,000 people a day, but we can't do anything about that, and besides, chemotherapy is good business, so that's not an issue. Also 3,000 people commit suicide every day, but we don't even know why they're doing it, so we can't help that. But we will destroy the economy and take all your freedom in order to stop this coronavirus! Because we can do that!

So stay in your homes and watch TV. You can go out only to buy food. If you do anything else outside, you will be fined or arrested or both. Every minute you stay outside is putting some old and sick people somewhere at risk! When you're outside, you'll keep a distance from other people. Don't talk to anyone. Don't look at anyone. And for god's sake, wear something around your face. It's the only way to save those old and sick people from dying from coronavirus so that they can die a few weeks later from cancer or pneumonia or heart attacks and so on, which is normal.

Try to keep a 2m distance even from your family members at home, because you never know! Wash your hands at least 36 times a day, and constantly disinfect everything anybody has touched. If we see that old and sick people keep dying anyway, we will have to take stronger measures and install cameras in your homes to check whether you're washing your hands and disinfecting things properly. Some may say it will be a fascist police state, but it's for your own good. One day you will also be old and sick, and you will want to die from heart disease and cancer like everyone else and not from this terrible coronavirus. And it really is horrible. You get a sore throat and start coughing, and sometimes you may even feel pain. So we hope you now understand why everything has to be forbidden and you must be isolated and separated from all other human beings. It's really the healthiest thing we can do for you, so please don't make this difficult.

Your government

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 4 Apr 2020, 18:13

gimp wrote:
4 Apr 2020, 07:42
it is a complex issue, and i am glad we can have peaceful discussion and listen to eachothers opinions.
+1

User avatar
ArZeNiK
38mins club
Posts: 688
Joined: 30 Jul 2016, 09:18
Team: Ferrari

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ArZeNiK » 4 Apr 2020, 21:38

Marcin wrote:
4 Apr 2020, 17:44
Dear citizens,

we have some very disturbing news to share. We have discovered a new coronavirus and found out that when old and sick people get infected with it, they often die. This is unprecedented! We must put a stop to this immediately, so from now on, you will not be allowed to go out whenever you want, you will have to wear masks outside, and you will keep at least a 2m distance from one another! We will shut down anything that's non-essential to prevent this disease from killing old and sick people. They're the most important people we have!

This will destroy the economy, but it has to be done. More than 3,000 people died from this virus in China in two months! Do you know how long it normally takes for 3,000 people to die in China? Well, about 3 hours, but that's not the point! We can't have this virus kill old and sick people. It's been killing some 400 people a day! The flu only kills about 1,300 people a day, so you can see how this is much worse. The flu is OK. We know the flu. It doesn't bother us. Also cancer kills 22,000 people a day, but we can't do anything about that, and besides, chemotherapy is good business, so that's not an issue. Also 3,000 people commit suicide every day, but we don't even know why they're doing it, so we can't help that. But we will destroy the economy and take all your freedom in order to stop this coronavirus! Because we can do that!

So stay in your homes and watch TV. You can go out only to buy food. If you do anything else outside, you will be fined or arrested or both. Every minute you stay outside is putting some old and sick people somewhere at risk! When you're outside, you'll keep a distance from other people. Don't talk to anyone. Don't look at anyone. And for god's sake, wear something around your face. It's the only way to save those old and sick people from dying from coronavirus so that they can die a few weeks later from cancer or pneumonia or heart attacks and so on, which is normal.

Try to keep a 2m distance even from your family members at home, because you never know! Wash your hands at least 36 times a day, and constantly disinfect everything anybody has touched. If we see that old and sick people keep dying anyway, we will have to take stronger measures and install cameras in your homes to check whether you're washing your hands and disinfecting things properly. Some may say it will be a fascist police state, but it's for your own good. One day you will also be old and sick, and you will want to die from heart disease and cancer like everyone else and not from this terrible coronavirus. And it really is horrible. You get a sore throat and start coughing, and sometimes you may even feel pain. So we hope you now understand why everything has to be forbidden and you must be isolated and separated from all other human beings. It's really the healthiest thing we can do for you, so please don't make this difficult.

Your government
just no
hi im arzenik :>
september 23th 2017 never forget
Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 5 Apr 2020, 02:45

well, it's all questionable, whether you should let old people die, while everything keeps going
I believe the economical costs of that decision would be even worse than of shutting everything down, but it's hard to evaluate because of insufficient info

however, those comparisons of number of deaths are bullshit
on an average day, 1500 people die in spain, 1700 in italy, 2000 in france
daily deaths in the last few days are 700-900, 700-900, 1000-1300, and that's only after all the restrictions
baisically covid became the leading cause of death, but it is not orders of magnitudes larger than cancer or heart diseases

usa of full of "free-thinkers" and that's why restrictions won't help and we will soon see the result
[carebox]

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 5 Apr 2020, 06:58

What is a free thinker? I thought it was a good thing, yet you are using it in a negative context.
God Bless America

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 5 Apr 2020, 09:07

gimp wrote:What is a free thinker?
I meant it is way more common people think they know better even if they are fucking stupid

This is generally a good thing for example in science, where most of major breakthroughs are done in western europe / usa, because they are more likely to do fringe science, which general field does not follow. In contrast, Asians more likely follow mainstream. The same goes for sasquatch/bigfoot, flat earth, and now coronavirus.
[carebox]

User avatar
Marcin
Kuski
Posts: 84
Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 09:19
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Marcin » 6 Apr 2020, 18:13

Image

User avatar
ROKKEBOL
Kuski
Posts: 358
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 08:02
Team: BAP
Location: asdf
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL » 7 Apr 2020, 00:21

Hi all, im got korona virus, doctors confirmed. Feeling fever and lack of breath/ Staying in hospital atm. Ask youre replies:(
Image

Image

User avatar
AndrY
38mins club
Posts: 623
Joined: 14 Dec 2015, 17:41
Team: .lev
Location: Perm, Russia
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by AndrY » 7 Apr 2020, 08:11

seriously? how did u manage to do it?
sverdlovsk region has unbad statistics at least:/
Image
My levs and other Elma things: www.elma-andry.wmsite.ru

User avatar
Zweq
34mins club
Posts: 3996
Joined: 28 Nov 2002, 15:54
Location: suo mesta

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Zweq » 7 Apr 2020, 11:40

damn redline, get well.
Image

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 7 Apr 2020, 13:55

get well bro!


User avatar
ArZeNiK
38mins club
Posts: 688
Joined: 30 Jul 2016, 09:18
Team: Ferrari

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ArZeNiK » 7 Apr 2020, 23:54

dame redline, very get well
hi im arzenik :>
september 23th 2017 never forget
Image

User avatar
Madness
35mins club
Posts: 2166
Joined: 1 Jan 2009, 10:51
Location: UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Madness » 8 Apr 2020, 01:55

Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 8 Apr 2020, 08:44

my 2 weeks quarantine in korea is over
[carebox]

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 8 Apr 2020, 08:46

milagros wrote:
8 Apr 2020, 08:44
my 2 weeks quarantine in korea is over
edit: redline, get well
madness, wtf
[carebox]

User avatar
Marcin
Kuski
Posts: 84
Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 09:19
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Marcin » 8 Apr 2020, 11:51

Image

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 8 Apr 2020, 17:41

Redline! How is it going? I hope you are getting better?
God Bless America

User avatar
Madness
35mins club
Posts: 2166
Joined: 1 Jan 2009, 10:51
Location: UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Madness » 9 Apr 2020, 16:01

milagros wrote:
5 Apr 2020, 02:45
baisically covid became the leading cause of death
Not even close. You must have confused the total number of deaths with the daily number of deaths.

Between Jan 22 (17 deaths in total) and Apr 08 (88,457 deaths in total) there were 88,440 deaths (in total) from Covid-19. That's on average 1149 deaths a day. About 150,000 people die every day. So Covid-19 has been responsible for about 0.76% of all deaths since Jan 22.

It works out at about 3.78% for the last 7 days - still not a leading cause. Nowhere near.

That's if all the people really died "from" (rather than "with") Covid-19.

Now we can all stop panicking.
Image

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 9 Apr 2020, 18:25

The daily deaths being reported as a result of corona in USA have passed 1000 per day last couple days, which is double than the worse daily death count ever for the flu. I cannot speak to whether they died from it or with it as you have pointed out. Probably many conspiracies on stat fanagling but hard to prove.

That being said USA has a population of 330,000,000. Many European countries are doing far worse per 1,000,000 capita. I believe milagros is saying it has become the leading cause of death in these Europeon countries recently. Daily deaths were much lower in beginning of pandemic, so looking at the total number and dividing by number of days may not be an accurate representation of the"weekly" situation. panic is more likely in the now and not the big scheme of things.

CDC says reported daily deaths in America may double to around 2200 in late April and then begin to platuea. Leading death in USA is heart disease with a daily death currently at 1700. Of course heart disease consistently kills that many, corona may only surpass it for a few weeks.

So we just need to be careful with our words i guess if we want to get technical on averages and numbers. You could argue that panic is never justified in any situation, keeping calm and evaluating the situatuon though and reacting is fine, also downplaying it is bad too. I think for a couple months quarantining is a good idea since it may become leading cause of daily deaths soon. And then we go back to our daily lives once it has lessened maybe to a manageable amount. Again it is a complex subject. I change my mind about it often and try to be objective with the numbers and sources they are coming from.
God Bless America

User avatar
Lousku
Kuski
Posts: 2908
Joined: 5 Feb 2010, 00:25
Team: BAP
Location: expensive land of dads

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Lousku » 9 Apr 2020, 22:01

ROKKEBOL pls report how are u D:
then again i don't know anything
maybe easier not to think abouut alöl things thought than not things thought ... or something..=?

User avatar
ROKKEBOL
Kuski
Posts: 358
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 08:02
Team: BAP
Location: asdf
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL » 10 Apr 2020, 09:21

Ty everyone and everyone again, really my elma community feeled more than my irl community, ty all very much, seriously! Wasnt expect.
Ontopic: as doctors said, im having light state of that virus, which means i will not die next 2-3 weeks. Now still being in hospital, on quarantine,they must keep me here. im going to be back to my regular life in 2 weeks. Im ofc doubt in our local doctors, but im optimist and hope on the best result.

Now breathing without special instruments, dont need anything. Thank you all again! I hope that everything will be nicce
Image

Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 10 Apr 2020, 15:35

Madness wrote:
9 Apr 2020, 16:01
Between Jan 22 (17 deaths in total) and Apr 08 (88,457 deaths in total) there were 88,440 deaths (in total) from Covid-19.
Between january 01 1900 and april 08 2020 there were 88.457 deaths from coronavirus, which makes it ~2 deaths per day.
20th century is about as relevant as january or february death tolls
[carebox]

User avatar
Hosp
38mins club
Posts: 1969
Joined: 30 Aug 2009, 20:55
Team: MiE
Location: Uppsala, Sweden.
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Hosp » 10 Apr 2020, 15:35

Glad to hear it ROKKEBOL! Get well, soon elma again!
Image
ToMaT

User avatar
ROKKEBOL
Kuski
Posts: 358
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 08:02
Team: BAP
Location: asdf
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL » 10 Apr 2020, 18:12

Hosp wrote:
10 Apr 2020, 15:35
Glad to hear it ROKKEBOL! Get well, soon elma again!
Ty Hosp andd zweq and arzenik and milagros and gimp and lousku and andry001 memfis spef bjenn lukazz and everyone who cared, it was real help to me from the community, thank you all! I needed that moral support. I almost died in the 1st 2 days but now im okayed and getting better. Willl be back in 2 weeks or early, depends on doctors. cya
Last edited by ROKKEBOL on 10 Apr 2020, 18:24, edited 1 time in total.
Image

Image

User avatar
gimp
Kuski
Posts: 1050
Joined: 28 May 2007, 08:47

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp » 10 Apr 2020, 18:22

Why did you get it so bad? I presume you are a young man, do you have other health problems like asthma or something? Glad the doctors are optimisitic of you.
God Bless America

User avatar
ROKKEBOL
Kuski
Posts: 358
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 08:02
Team: BAP
Location: asdf
Contact:

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL » 10 Apr 2020, 18:31

gimp wrote:
10 Apr 2020, 18:22
Why did you get it so bad? I presume you are a young man, do you have other health problems like asthma or something? Glad the doctors are optimisitic of you.
well, not so young, im 33 now, Also im dont have my right lung and half of liver. Pls pm if wanna know details
Image

Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 10 Apr 2020, 18:40

gimp wrote:
9 Apr 2020, 18:25
The daily deaths being reported as a result of corona in USA have passed 1000 per day last couple days.
it was above 1900 last 3 days, it will most likely get much higher than 2200
death rate increases ~3-4 weeks after the "new cases", for example germany or korea had 0.1% death rate for several weeks, but now it's 2.4% in germany and 2% in korea
[carebox]

User avatar
Madness
35mins club
Posts: 2166
Joined: 1 Jan 2009, 10:51
Location: UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Madness » 10 Apr 2020, 23:50

milagros wrote:
10 Apr 2020, 15:35
Madness wrote:
9 Apr 2020, 16:01
Between Jan 22 (17 deaths in total) and Apr 08 (88,457 deaths in total) there were 88,440 deaths (in total) from Covid-19.
Between january 01 1900 and april 08 2020 there were 88.457 deaths from coronavirus, which makes it ~2 deaths per day.
20th century is about as relevant as january or february death tolls
Madness wrote:
9 Apr 2020, 16:01
It works out at about 3.78% for the last 7 days - still not a leading cause. Nowhere near.
Image

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 11 Apr 2020, 00:20

I really don't want to go personal, but are you stupid or what? 150,000 people die daily in the world, 2/3 of them of age-related stuff. The world has a population of 7.8 billion. The proportion of the population that's infected with this virus is some 1.7m. Even if we assume we only detect 10% of cases, which is probably pessimistic, that's 17m, or some 0.2% of the world's population. So, on average, there would normally be about 300-350 deaths per day among the infected population. Currently it's about 7000 per day.

Just taking some stats from wiki, the top ten causes of death combined cause some 410 deaths per 100k people per year. The coronavirus has killed some 100k people already, among the let's say 17m infected, making it some 600 deaths per 100k, and it hasn't been a year.

Even if the assumption that we detect 10% of cases is overestimated tenfold, you still only get 2% infected, so multiply everything by 50 if it spreads to the whole world uncontrolled, add the collapse of literally every healthcare system in the world, and you got what you want.

Now you can <strikethrough>start panicking</strikethrough> start being reasonable.

User avatar
Madness
35mins club
Posts: 2166
Joined: 1 Jan 2009, 10:51
Location: UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Madness » 11 Apr 2020, 02:03

pawq wrote:
11 Apr 2020, 00:20
add the collapse of literally every healthcare system in the world, and you got what you want.
Sorry, but what? What do I want?
pawq wrote:
11 Apr 2020, 00:20
Just taking some stats from wiki, the top ten causes of death combined cause some 410 deaths per 100k people per year. The coronavirus has killed some 100k people already, among the let's say 17m infected, making it some 600 deaths per 100k, and it hasn't been a year.
Your stats are not too bad, but there are some flaws. You are comparing the top ten causes of death with the whole population, but the deaths caused by the coronavirus only with the infected ones? What your stats say is basically that if everybody in the world got the virus this year, then it would be the leading cause of death, which obviously it would be (this year). Next year it would be close to zero as most of the "survivors" would be immune and there would probably be some cure/vaccine too. As you can see, you can't really compare it like this and it's nowhere near the leading cause of death. I was only disputing that. No need to get emotional, I agree with the rest, it's good to slow it down as much as possible and save as many lives as possible.
Image

User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4511
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros » 11 Apr 2020, 03:26

Madness wrote:
11 Apr 2020, 02:03
You are comparing the top ten causes of death with the whole population, but the deaths caused by the coronavirus only with the infected ones?
no, I didn't
I compared the number of daily death in the population due to coronavirus and the total number of daily deaths due to any reason on an average day prior to coronavirus

edit: i thought you replied to my post:)

anyway if you take these statistic regionally (for example new york state, lombardy, ..), coronavirus kills way more than anything else
[carebox]

User avatar
pawq
38mins club
Posts: 6412
Joined: 24 Aug 2008, 19:56
Team: TR
Location: Southampton, UK

Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq » 11 Apr 2020, 03:35

Of course they're flawed, it's just some ultra basic estimations to get a general idea, but the average for the whole world is as relevant as the 20th century, as mila said. It's easily the leading cause of death (it multiplies daily deaths by a factor of 10-20?!) among the infected population, so if ~all of the global population got infected, then it would also multiply that number of deaths, only it would actually be a whole lot higher because of the collapse of healthcare systems, which would be absolutely fucking catastrophic in every way, why is that hard to understand?

There's a difference between keeping a cool head and not panicking or exaggerating, and being ignorant or deliberately underestimating or undermining what has been deemed to be a grave threat by just about every sensible person/specialist on earth...

edit: for reference, the average UK weekly deathtoll is about 11.5k, or about 1650 per day. Yesterday, the number of deaths due to/with covid was 980, and it's still increasing. You still think it's "far from being the leading cause of death"?

By the time it stops increasing, the weekly deathtoll might well be doubled, or more. And this is with a complete lockdown in place, which will slow it down in a couple of weeks or so. No lockdown would not slow it down, so in a couple of months the weekly deathtoll could be what, tripled? quintupled? Multiplied by 10?

edit 2: also, you can now clearly see the effect of delaying the lockdown by a week or two, as was done in the uk. the daily death toll is now greater than it has been in italy or spain at any point. There's only one conclusion - the government's reluctance/sluggishness/indecisiveness will cost thousands of lives.

Post Reply