Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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ROKKEBOL wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 18:12
Hosp wrote: 10 Apr 2020, 15:35 Glad to hear it ROKKEBOL! Get well, soon elma again!
Ty Hosp andd zweq and arzenik and milagros and gimp and lousku and andry001 memfis spef bjenn lukazz and everyone who cared, it was real help to me from the community, thank you all! I needed that moral support. I almost died in the 1st 2 days but now im okayed and getting better. Willl be back in 2 weeks or early, depends on doctors. cya
glad to hear youre not on the verge of death anymore, go for better imo
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Please be better soon ROKKEBOL
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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I am hoping a random sampling test is done, specifically of 10000 or more people, so that the margin of error is less than 1%. I am speculating, but i think we would find the death rate to be very low, like maybe .5%, but the infection rate to be very high and more widespread than we thought. Sampling right now is of course inaccurate, as it is only for the symptomatic, we need a large random sampling, find how many infected or people with anti bodies (infection rate) and then look at how many die (true death rate), hospitalizations, see how ethnicity plays a factor, age, and all kinds of useful information. I dont know why nobody is doing this yet, we would have the resources for that many tests and it is simple mathematics which is tried and true. Until this is done, i feel like i know nothing about the true risk of the virus. If my hypothesis is correct and it is a very low death rate and many have already gotten it, then we are further through this than we think, and we can begin normalcy soon. If the death rate is truly 4-5% and not wide spread, stay inside forever.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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gimp wrote: 16 Apr 2020, 02:30 I am hoping a random sampling test is done, specifically of 10000 or more people, so that the margin of error is less than 1%. I am speculating, but i think we would find the death rate to be very low, like maybe .5%, but the infection rate to be very high and more widespread than we thought.
The death rate will most likely be around 2-2.5%. Lots of (younger) people die after 4-8 weeks, which will eventually show up in the numbers.

The death rate can be already estimated based on:
1. diamond princess (everybody tested) with 1.7% death rate now, but several people in critical condition, so it will grow
edit: 1.97% now (14 deaths according to wiki)

2. korea kept testing everyone who based on the phone location got anywhere close to the confirmed case - death rate 2.2%, but growing every day, because people who got it in February die

3. edit: Austria did the random sampling test, and the real number of real cases is approx 1.9x higher than the official number (so current real death rate is 1.5%, but many people from this set will eventually die)

several countries had death rate 0.1-0.2% for a long time (germany, korea, austria), but in the last 2-3 weeks they grew to 2-3%, so taking as example countries where it got recently is not a good measure
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Do you have sources for those? Diamond princess i didnt find anything saying 14 deaths. The one i found had like 6 deaths, and they said it was flawed because many were elderly so still not a randon sample. The source i found for Austria random sampling had a .77% death rate. South Korea has not tested very much of their total population according to worldometer, just some 10000 out of every million people.

The Austria test seems like a good random sampling like the one i was hoping for, and it is a low death rate of .77% in the source I read.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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gimp wrote: 19 Apr 2020, 20:00Do you have sources for those? Diamond princess i didnt find anything saying 14 deaths. The one i found had like 6 deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (13)

gimp wrote: 19 Apr 2020, 20:00it was flawed because many were elderly so still not a randon sample.
True, of course. Any study will be flawed to some degree, since no matter what sample you choose, it will not be representative. It's particularly hard for these studies, because the virus is not spread uniformly anywhere. But still, they're some indications, especially if done properly on large samples. If it's 0.77% or anywhere near, then we should bloody hope that it gets contained as soon as possible. (Not that we shouldn't hope for that otherwise.) Try multiplying 0.77% by 8 billion.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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gimp wrote: 19 Apr 2020, 20:00 Do you have sources for those? Diamond princess i didnt find anything saying 14 deaths. The one i found had like 6 deaths
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... uise_ships
edit: some sources show 13, as one of the evacuated passengers (australian) died later and is counted for australia
gimp wrote: 19 Apr 2020, 20:00 The source i found for Austria random sampling had a .77% death rate.
that was at the time austria had very low death rate (they died later), now their death rate is above 3% and with respect to estimated number of cases it is above 1.5%

edit: Those early estimates might be very misleading. For example on 30Match Austria had 9377 cases and 108 dead, yesterday 14696 and 452 deaths. So the number of cases went up 1.5x, but dead over 4x. And it is because of those old cases, not the new ones.
gimp wrote: South Korea has not tested very much of their total population according to worldometer
They did targeted testing of all people that got anywhere close to confirmed cases based on tracked phones. I regularly get messages from govermnet with exact paths and where I could have been close enoug to someone with the virus. This strategy worked very well as yesterday they had only 8 new cases with 6 being from the airport. I didn't mean they caught all cases, but they definitely caught 90% of them.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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I see. Okay, thank you for taking time to respond with that information pawq and milagros.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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all info is insufficient and death might depend on additional data - blood type distribution, haplogroup r1b ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogrou ... Y-DNA).PNG ), guidelines how to count deaths, vaccination against tuberculosis, etc
but it will most likely be in the range 1-4%
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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What about the morality of telling someone you must keep your business closed or telling people you cannot go somewhere?

If the government tells businesses to close, then you (someone who is terrified of the coronavirus) can stay at home and you do delivery services to survive. If the government lets businesses open, then you may still stay at home and your situation has not changed and you are just as safe.

Telling someone "you must close your business" or "you are not allowed to go there" is claiming that you know what is best for them, i suppose that is what i have an issue with. I would stick with this principal even if the death rate were 50%, i would not leave my house, but i would be glad that people have freedom to do so. Its like cigarettes, i quit long ago, but i dont wish for a world without consenting informed adults not being allowed to smoke.

You could argue that opening businesses could hurt others by prolonging the downfall of the economy if more people die, or that our healthcare system may get overwhelmed, and admittedly these are fair points. It could indirectly effect you that way down the line, but this to me is not worth the price of freedom, it is too indirect of a consequence and not a proportional amount of loss to you as it would be to the person you are taking freedom away from. And yes i know i sound very much like a free thinker :) again, i am not arguing for leaving your house, only the freedom to go where you wish and to reopen businesses.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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There are two big problems with the statistics at the moment:

1) Some (most?) countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (UK, ...?)

2) Many (most?) countries count any death of a patient who has Covid-19 as a death caused by Covid-19 (UK, Italy, Germany, Hong Kong, US, ...?)

source: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... tes-differ
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Madness wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 11:202) Many (most?) countries count any death of a patient who has Covid-19 as a death caused by Covid-19 (UK, Italy, Germany, Hong Kong, US, ...?)
Yeah, but can also look at the increases in total numbers of deaths, it's another indicator.

gimp: it is absolutely right for governments to temporarily take away basic freedoms in order to protect the society. It's not about "if you are concerned then stay at home". Very few people are able to isolate themselves completely, most still have to do shopping or work, etc., and would be just as vulnerable as everyone else if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked. It's extremely selfish to say "I want the freedom to keep my business open, regardless of how many people may be affected by it, including my employees." Of course being selfish is necessary for survival to an extent, but this is again where governments should step in to protect employees and employers alike from financial hardship, something that the american government doesn't seem to be overly interested in...

Also, the primary concern isn't the economy suffering if people die or the health care system becoming overwhelmed, it's PEOPLE DYING. For example tens of thousands, as opposed to hundreds of thousands or millions. I wonder how you could've omitted this detail in your deliberation... If this is an "indirect consequence" or "not a proportional amount of loss", then maybe you should consider again the value of human life.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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pawq wrote: 20 Apr 2020, 01:05If it's 0.77% or anywhere near, then we should bloody hope that it gets contained as soon as possible. (Not that we shouldn't hope for that otherwise.) Try multiplying 0.77% by ̶8̶ ̶b̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ 7.78 billion.
There would only be 7.72 billion of us left. We would eventually become completely immune or at least resistant to it and if not us then our children or our children's children would. Human civilisation would continue and be stronger. Life is cruel, but if it didn't work like this, we wouldn't even be here.

(Not saying we should let it spread everywhere. Just tried to imagine it did.)

But then there's also the question: What if we all manage to hide away from it ("contain it") and it comes back much stronger (mutated version 19.2) and kills most of us (like more than half of the world population) including those who would have easily survived the first wave and could have been immune to it now?
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Madness wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 12:40
pawq wrote: 20 Apr 2020, 01:05If it's 0.77% or anywhere near, then we should bloody hope that it gets contained as soon as possible. (Not that we shouldn't hope for that otherwise.) Try multiplying 0.77% by ̶8̶ ̶b̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ 7.78 billion.
There would only be 7.72 billion of us left.
And we'd have to bury 60 million people, dat sound worrying or nat?
Madness wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 12:40But then there's also the question: What if we all manage to hide away from it ("contain it") and it comes back much stronger (mutated version 19.2) and kills most of us (like more than half of the world population) including those who would have easily survived the first wave and could have been immune to it now?
As unlikely random what-if as any...
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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gimp wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 09:30 What about the morality of telling someone you must keep your business closed or telling people you cannot go somewhere?
I'm not arguing for/against the restrictions that are being imposed. I have no impact on the decision made, so I just do the best decision given what the governments do.

To asnwer your question, there are probably lots of deaths due to postponed surgeries etc. I don't think there are any deaths due to the hunger of unemployed people.
Madness wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 11:20 Many (most?) countries count any death of a patient who has Covid-19 as a death caused by Covid-19 (UK, Italy, Germany, Hong Kong, US, ...?)
It is a common practice for any disease in research / studies / publications. For many dieseases (cancer in particular) there is no way to distinguish between direct/indirect causes of deaths. So you get in even if you get hit by a car. For those flu fatality estimates, people were counted even when they were not proven to have the flu. Some countries (UK) count only death in the hospital (not in nurseries for example). There are also lots of people who didn't have a (positive) test and died before making it to the hospital. And if the deaths are in thousands, people don't waste test kits on dead people.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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pawq wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 11:38
Madness wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 11:202) Many (most?) countries count any death of a patient who has Covid-19 as a death caused by Covid-19 (UK, Italy, Germany, Hong Kong, US, ...?)

gimp: it is absolutely right for governments to temporarily take away basic freedoms in order to protect the society. It's not about "if you are concerned then stay at home". Very few people are able to isolate themselves completely, most still have to do shopping or work, etc., and would be just as vulnerable as everyone else if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked.
I disagree. If you dont feel safe you can work from home or even shop from home. And if you cannot shop from home you are probably shopping at the places that are "essential" anyway while most businesses are closed. Those who do not feel safe may still stay just as safe. And those who would choose to go out to businesses may die, and that is just something we may have to agree to disagree on. Just like smoking, skydiving, or anything really, you should be free to risk your own life if you are informed of the risk and are not hurting others in the process. And this would not be hurting others because they are free to stay home as they already have been.

Now dont go on telling me i am stupid or anything like you did to Madness. Like milagros said it doesnt matter what we think anyway as it has no effect (i havent taken over the world quite yet), i respect your opinion and you can respect mine too.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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There are opinions, and there are false or stupid statements.

Of course going about your daily life as normally would hurt others, because you'd help the epidemic to spread, which would indirectly kill. Also it's very naive to say that people can just stay home if they wish. There are fucktons of people who cannot work from home (healthcare, production of just about everything, the whole food and essentials distribution chain, the whole transportation, delivery and postal industry pretty much, emergency services, lots of other essential social services, construction, etc etc etc etc), and many of those have limited job security, so not turning up voluntarily would likely mean losing it. Imposing a lockdown limits the spread, greatly reducing the risk for people who cannot avoid it. It's not a matter of opinion, saying this is not true is simply false.

A matter of opinion is whether we care about businesses or lives more. Apparently there's a very large movement supporting letting the epidemic spread to safeguard the economy in the US.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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If you are an employee of a business that requires work that cannot be done at home and that business has been forced to close - then great dont work and stay home and safe. If that business opens and then you choose not to work, then great stay at home and stay safe if you so choose.

The difference is one gives the option and the other does not to those who wish to work and take the risk to make money. You are just as safe and still home if you dont want to work, you may also not allow others to enter your home if you so choose. There is nothing false about these statements.

My intuition tells me you are only going to start getting meaner and meaner the more we talk or the more i disagree with you. I can debate with someone and hear them out and even have my mind changed, it helps when i know they listen to me too, so i try to listen to others i disagree with often and listen to them. but as soon as the name calling starts and negative adjectives start flying around about me i dont really want to listen anymore, i want that person out of my life. So far its been alright, but i am wondering if the conversation is devolving into that arena as you start saying i am naiive, statements are stupid and so on. Dont know yet, guess we will see.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Sure I could just stay home and not care that people are going out and sitting close in parks etc. (which they are in spite of lockdown orders) and I'd be okay. But since they are doing this in spite of lockdown orders, I'm sure even more would if there was no lockdown orders, which means much more spread and eventually overwhelmed health care. Now I could just not care if I'm sitting home and I'm okay. But I still have to go to the grocery store, so there's a small change I might get infected and get really sick, or I could get some other random ailment not related to corona, and if that happens I'd like there to still be an empty hospital bed for me.

Sure it's a fair opinion if you think the world is everyone for themselves and government should be as small as possible. But I absolutely disagree with that, I'm pretty sure if we do things together it's better for everyone, and that sometimes mean creating rules and laws to give all kinds of people are fair shot, because we need all kinds of people to make a society work.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Kopaka wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 09:12Now I could just not care if I'm sitting home and I'm okay. But I still have to go to the grocery store, so there's a small change I might get infected and get really sick, or I could get some other random ailment not related to corona, and if that happens I'd like there to still be an empty hospital bed for me.
Precisely. It is false that people could stay at home and be completely unaffected while the epidemic rages outside, whatever your opinions are. Just like saying that the virus is far from being the leading cause of death was extremely misleading. Also, sensible governments provided financial protection (i.e. salaries) for people who cannot work because of the lockdown. If some government does not do that, or does it ineffectively, they can surely be criticised for it.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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btw I've just noticed more than 0.1% of new york state died of coronavirus
not 0.1% of infected people, but of ALL people
so any estimates below or close to 0.1% death rate sound a bit ridiculous
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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pawq wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 10:58Just like saying that the virus is far from being the leading cause of death was extremely misleading.
It wasn't misleading. The stats are misleading you into believing that. Imagine there's 100 people in the world, 40 have terminal cancer, 30 have serious heart disease and 30 are healthy. They all catch the coronavirus and all but 29 of the healthy ones die. The 29 healthy ones die of old age 100 years later. What is the leading cause of death?
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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gimp wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 04:21 If you are an employee of a business that requires work that cannot be done at home and that business has been forced to close - then great dont work and stay home and safe. If that business opens and then you choose not to work, then great stay at home and stay safe if you so choose.
This wouldn't work I am afraid. If the business is forced to close, then the government should support it and its workers in some ways. Like in the UK people who can't work because of the lockdown get 80% of their wages from the government. If it opens and you choose not to work, then you'll probably get the sack.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Madness wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 16:49 It wasn't misleading. The stats are misleading you into believing that.
it is not misleading. The death rate of cancer / heart diseases is calculated the same way as of covid. If the person has cancer and the cancer is not considered cured, any death of the patient (including being hit by a bus) is added in.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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milagros wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 18:23
Madness wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 16:49 It wasn't misleading. The stats are misleading you into believing that.
it is not misleading. The death rate of cancer / heart diseases is calculated the same way as of covid. If the person has cancer and the cancer is not considered cured, any death of the patient (including being hit by a bus) is added in.
OK, but then in my example above you get 71 coronavirus deaths, 40 cancer deaths, 30 heart disease deaths and 29 old-age deaths. How is this not misleading?
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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It's extremely misleading because it diminishes the gravity of the epidemic, which can be clearly seen if you look at any estimates of mortality rates, and extrapolate that to the global population. Really can't be explained more succinctly. Besides, if you're really adamant about your way of counting it your way, consider that the total weekly number of deaths in the UK is currently almost doubled (or more, data coming out with a 2 week delay). I already wrote this some time ago...
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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pawq wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 19:04 It's extremely misleading because it diminishes the gravity of the epidemic, which can be clearly seen if you look at any estimates of mortality rates, and extrapolate that to the global population. Really can't be explained more succinctly. Besides, if you're really adamant about your way of counting it your way, consider that the total weekly number of deaths in the UK is currently almost doubled (or more, data coming out with a 2 week delay). I already wrote this some time ago...
I am not adamant about anything, but you can see from my example those stats are flawed. In the UK they let it go wild and too many people got it within a short period of time. It's not that surprising it has temporarily increased the number of deaths like that. But making it seem worse and scaring people by misleading information is not going to help anybody. See how the media made everything worse with their scaremongering. People panic-buying and stockpiling stuff as if there was going to be a third world war...
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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The media are the media, and statistics are statistics. The virus is currently the leading cause of death in the UK (and presumably in many other countries, but orka check exact numbers), by a large margin. But "flu kills more people annually that the Coronavirus so the Coronavirus is not a threat and doesn't warrant any action" is an extremely widespread belief and statement, which actually actively causes people to ignore or counter the imposed measures, my own damn mother included.

I wrote here very early on that there's a difference between keeping cool heads but being concerned and taking action on one hand, and panicking on the other. Reliable statistics showing what a proportionally serious threat this epidemic is should cause people to adopt the former stance if presented reasonably, but sadly often push them towards the latter when presented in a sensationalist manner in the media. But those flu etc comparisons, although they might be true in principle (COVID hasn't killed as many people globally as flu does annually yet), push people towards the third option - negating the potential threat not understanding its potential, resisting the imposed measures, and consequently worsening the situation.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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For those not in favor of businesses reopening, what needs to happen before you would say businesses could open? Does some metric need to get past (I.g. death rate, number of confirmed cases, etc.)? I understand there are indirect causes associated with reopening, albeit i see them as very small for those who could still choose to stay at home. But fair enough, when would you allow businesses to reopen (hypothetically if you could control the situation)?
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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I would not decide it by myself, I would rely on scientific advice, studies and simulations of epidemic spread... From what I understand about stuff, the most important thing is to avoid loosening the restrictions before the virus has been contained sufficiently to prevent secondary outbreaks. How to assess when this point has passed - I have no clue, but I presume that's what the field of epidemiology exists for. Can only hope that governments listen to sensible advice and not do anything rash... Which hasn't exactly been the case so far, or I guess ever :/
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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as korea and taiwan showed, closing was not necessary to stop spreading of the virus, it only requires discipline
i dont know exacly about taiwan, but in korea the only thing that closed were schools (home teaching now) and stadiums (baseball league started without fans)
all bars, pubs or (strip-)clubs are open and never closed
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL »

One of the most popular russian tv shows before and during pandemiс :lol:
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m not sure if rus government hiding real number of lethal cases or not but they really keeping strong isolation mode all over the country somehow

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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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Both Turkey and Russia not very beliebable... Are you OK by now?
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ROKKEBOL »

Yes, i feel good now, ty. Doctors refreshed my blood and fixed some other health problems :D
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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pawq wrote: 27 Apr 2020, 19:25 Both Turkey and Russia not very beliebable... Are you OK by now?
i guess they are ok, only the outbreak started later and death will catch up
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

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COVID-19 Questionnaire
Short questionnare for scientific research purposes

https://covid19experience.netlify.app/
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by Marcin »

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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

Non essential shops are still having forced closures in my area (i live in Los Angeles County, California) A lot of businesses have had to shut down forever. They say 9 people have died in the city i live in, maybe has 50000-100000 population. And we are mandated to wear masks in the places we can go. How about you?
Last edited by gimp on 23 May 2020, 08:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by ArZeNiK »

the emergency situation is gone but we still have to wear masks (even though as far as i can see on the street only about 5% of ppl do), many ppl cant gather at the same area, and still need paper to move outside of city
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

Where I live all restaurants/bars/barber etc. have all reopened recently.

However, none of the statistics have gotten any better, there are just as many new cases/deaths. What this tells me is people value their freedom more than the mortality rate of their given age/underlying illness, etc, I have family/friends that say they are not ready to socialize and there is nothing but love/respect for their choices. In places like grocery store there is strict social distancing rules/masks/can only walk one way down the aisle. Some even take your temperature to allow entry.

This is the way things should have been from the beginning and I am glad businesses have opened back up, because a poor economy is dangerous to lives as well. Poor economy does not just mean you have less money, it means less goods and services for your family, if nobody works then unemployment checks will only work for so long because nothing is being produced.

I am glad for the wearing of masks and social distancing rules, although I admit at bar nobody really complies with this cause drinking and stuff. I like getting to choose my own risk and suffering the consequences while being well informed. This point of valuing freedom over mortality rate was inevitable and just took people awhile to realize covid is here to stay.

I think the argument of overwhelmed health care may be only good reason to close all businesses, but I do not think the hospitals are overwhelmed to the point where this is a greater evil than the closure of the economy.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by kuchitsu »

Most places in Moscow that didn't go out of business have reopened as well. And a lot of people, including store workers, don't follow the distancing/mask/glove requirements despite there being warnings all over the place and the statistics still being quite bad. I agree it's like everyone just got tired of keeping up the facade of "oh, we gotta do everything we can to minimise deaths!" and are finally being honest about their desire for freedom.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq »

gimp wrote: 23 Jun 2020, 17:54 Where I live all restaurants/bars/barber etc. have all reopened recently.

However, none of the statistics have gotten any better, there are just as many new cases/deaths.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

Thanks pawq for correcting me. Things have opened. However the statistics have not gotten any better, there are more recorded cases. The rest of my statement stays the same.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros »

usa will be interesting - everything reopened, there are all these protests everywhere, election rallies started, records of new infections reached and nobody will dare to close economy again
so we will soon see what is the full potential of covid
let's all observe it together from a distance (sry gimp)
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

Yes.

More confirmed cases does not mean things have become worse. In California's case, more confirmed cases is the result of testing more people. It has become relatively easy, my girlfriend and I were tested while donating blood for example. I think this is great, because now you know if you have it and then stay home, just like any other sickness. The graph below shows that positive tests divided by total tests given out has remained about the same for California, (showing California since that was the graph Pawq used above). If the blue line spikes, I think you could make an argument that things are getting worse, but for now, things are actually the same. Total cases is just a misleading stat.

Deaths per one million is a good stat in my opinion (can be found on worldometer) if we want to compare how one country is doing to another. Right now you would have a better chance of dying in Sweden than America according to deaths per one million people. This is dependent of course that the death count is really a covid death, which maybe these are over or undercounted, but who knows for sure.

Like Milagros, I am curious to see if things get worse from reopening. I would look out for deaths per one million increasing or the blue line below maybe. On a personal level I am not worried at all, because I am a young man with no underlying illness. If I were very old I would maybe take more cautions, since 1/10 chance of dying if get it.

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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by pawq »

gimp wrote: 28 Jun 2020, 22:43In California's case, more confirmed cases is the result of testing more people.
The percentage positive curve in your graph goes up in those last few days...
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by milagros »

gimp wrote: 28 Jun 2020, 22:43 On a personal level I am not worried at all, because I am a young man with no underlying illness.
don't worry, some underlying illness will be found if you die:)
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by tej »

My argument against gimp's idea that people should have the choice to go out as well as the choice to stay in:

If the option to go out is available, the government will likely not be forced to support people while they're forced to stay inside. Where I live, the government is paying all people who were forced to not work due to our quarantines. So, given that people are allowed to go out, and the government is likely to not support them if they don't, it is not really a choice anymore. People, then, must go outside to maintain a job to ensure they have the income to survive.

Furthermore, once a significant part of society is out and about, which means the rate of spread will increase, the people who chose to stay safe (due to their age, immune system, morals, etc.) are more likely to be exposed to the disease. The family member who is delivering their necessities, is now more likely to be sick when delivering those things. If the old person decides to get their own groceries, the probability of getting sick from the people around them in public is higher. Again, to be clear, the fact people were allowed to choose has now lead to the people who chose to stay safe being more likely to get sick.

It's the combination of these personal liberties that makes me think the United States' response to the virus was immoral. The fact that people are all going to school, bringing home the disease to their grandparents, going to work and doing the same, etc, is completely unfair to the people who are compromised in a way that they would be likely to take a much harder hit from the disease if they were infected. Many people do not seem to really care about these people, but I know a few, and one of my ex-girlfriends would potentially not fare well if she were to get this disease. I think it's incredibly selfish.

And just to rub it in, many Americans can't seem to grasp the idea that if they're going to go out and get the disease, they can wear a mask to at least limit the spread, because somehow it is such a problem to have your liberties taken away in that way.

With no further commentary, here are graphs of the four most populous American states: California, Texas, Florida and New York, as well as South Carolina which I chose because I have relation to it, and the two most populous Canadian provinces: Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada seems to have avoided the problem almost completely. In Ontario the major trend in new cases seems to inversely correlate with my experience of the level of quarantine strictness increasing.

California:

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Texas:

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Florida:

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New York (State):

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South Carolina:

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Ontario:

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Quebec

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Death per capita rate in various regions

Code: Select all

STATE or PROVINCE   DEATHS  POPULATION  DEATHS/POPULATION
New York            32 797  19.45 M     0.17 %
Quebec               5 709   8.16 M     0.07 %
Florida              8 765  21.48 M     0.04 %
South Carolina       2 144   5.15 M     0.04 %
California          10 753  39.51 M     0.03 %
Texas                9 527  29.00 M     0.03 %
Ontario              2 787  13.45 M     0.02 %
British Columbia       196   4.65 M     0.004 %
A note:
The rest of Canada's provinces, except Alberta, all had less than 70 deaths.

My subjective commentary:
Quebec is culturally very different than the rest of Canada. This does not explain why they were hit so hard, but it could be a factor. From what I've seen on the news, they had a nursing home problem of apocalyptic scale. Ontario did as well, but our rates are much lower.

The reason I've chosen death per capita rate to share, is because I think it is a good metric of a region's response. A region with a massive case count, but very minimal death count, means they kept the virus spread within their available medical resources to effectively treat all the patients. Deaths generally come from patients who were not adequately cared for. And...

My subjective political commentary:

A region should, to balance minimal economic fallout and minimal loss of life, keep the case counts just within their available resources. In an ideal situation, the number of cases being treated in hospital would equal the exact amount of space within hospitals. This means the virus is being safely (as safely as possible) transmitted throughout the population as fast as possible, without having to leave anybody who needs treatment untreated.
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Re: Corona Virus: will we all die?

Post by gimp »

Tej thanks for your response. If you were king of the world, when would you allow businesses to open and society to go back to normal? Also, what punishment would you enforce if people break your quaratine rules or try to keep their business alive?

At the end of the day there are two schools of thought this king of the world can choose, you take away peoples freedom to supposedly increase their safety or you allow freedom and decrease safety of those who choose to exercise it. As you know i am of the later opinion. We know for example cars kill people, smoking kills people, skydiving kills people, but we let them do it, even though it often puts others at risk as well. We allow it because cars are super helpful, so is an open economy.

No matter which way you choose it can appear to be selfish. should at risk people make everyone else slow down for them, when they themselves can take measures to be safe? i do not think at risk individuals necessarily will fail terribly in a normal run society. Of course we are trying to choose the lessor of two evils, and i do not claim everything will be easy for them. grandparents do not have to let their grandchildren in there home, or can make them take measures if they choose to, and groceries at least where i live get delivered at the door with no contact and you can choose to sanitize them how you wish if your worried about them being touched. People may work from home if they are an at risk individual, or acquire a skill that works for them. This is what deaf people do, short people do, stupid people do, and at risk individuals would have to do it too, you find a job you can be good at with the hand you are dealt in life, everyone needs to be granted the pursuit of happiness. Hell you can wear a helmet to work and be just as productive, why not do that? You can also buy a hazmat suit with a straw on it and go get schlobbered at the bar if thats what makes you feel comfortable.

Also lets not forget about a free market economy and businesses competing for consumer interest, if everything opened businesses are going to try and get the businesses of those who wish to be safe as and create solutions or enforce masks, deliveries, or whatever creative ideas they come up with, thats the beauty of capitalism. If a pandemic happened with a 50% death rate some businesses would rent a hazmat suit for you to use, things have a way of working out when you let billions of people compete and acheive optimal prices and quality to so that you use them and not someone else. Take that away or make it harder and you stop all incentives. Also is it not somewhat "selfish" to make essential workers be at risk to earn their pay, but non essentials stay home and safe and get a free check? Also giving free money for no exchange of service or goods devalues the currency, it hurts the economy slowly and is more of a bandaid than a solution.

Also where do you think America is being immoral by your viewpoint? Maybe in some states but in Califirnia everything has been totally shut down, schools are virtual, everywhere i go i see people wearing masks. I cant go to a bar, a barber, restaurants are outside only with distance between tables, and the waitresses wear face shields. I think you maybe saw some cherry picked instances on the internet of people complaining about them. My opinion on that is if a business owns property, and that is their requirement for you to go on said property, then you have to wear it. I think its a great idea for businesses to require masks right now, because most people will choose those ones. If one chose to not require them, well only certain people will shop there and thats their prerogative. Again you make the decisions who you interact with and not. you dont need to stop everything and take away everyones freedom.
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