When will the WR TT be under 36?!

Look for replays and levels and ask people's times.

Moderator: Moporators

User avatar
Zweq
34mins club
Posts: 4055
Joined: 28 Nov 2002, 15:54
Location: suo mesta

When will the WR TT be under 36?!

Post by Zweq »

I hope people hasn't got bored to this kind of topics :D, but its just so lovely to read these after some years and notice how wrong some people actually was. Of course its very hard to forecast what happens in the future especially when elma 2.0 might fuck the development up ;), but we can always guess the table number, aight?.

My personal guess is #281 based on:
#077: 39:57,28
#099: 38:59,41
=22 tables
#099: 38:59,41
#135: 37:57,66
=36 tables
#135: 37:57,66
#189: 36:59,17
=54 tables
#189: 36:59,17
#281: 35:59:99 :P
=92 tables
(http://www.moposite.com/lists/wr_stats/ ... opment.txt )
well, old stats gives some direction but still 100% guess
btw remember to write those funny comments like: 'OMFG NEVER GONA BE ANDER' so we can laugh at you when the time comes

ps. it wont go under 36
Image
User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4560
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Post by milagros »

i guess wr will never be under 36
not because it isn't possible, but because of new version and so on..
[carebox]
User avatar
Juski
Kuski
Posts: 2200
Joined: 26 Dec 2003, 20:53
Location: irc://irc.ircnet.org/ranks

Post by Juski »

if elma 2.0 nat come es 324
No regrets Image
Are you LOST?
User avatar
Napoleon
Kuski
Posts: 1333
Joined: 10 Sep 2002, 18:26
Location: õ,õ

Post by Napoleon »

as i said in other topic, under 36 wont happen
omg sach wise i am :x
User avatar
Ramone
50mins club
Posts: 1966
Joined: 20 May 2002, 15:42

Post by Ramone »

Why is under 36 so imossible? Look at Apple Harvest, just a new style there (30 sec style) and we´re allready under. Or 59 sec style to AH, then just some hoyl and 10 secs of from Ramp Frenzy. 10 From labby pro etc... soon under... I guess #194.

New styles in the making :wink:
Elasto Mania - ez better
User avatar
Revolt
Kuski
Posts: 1100
Joined: 31 May 2003, 12:20
Location: jamming smoke on the water

Post by Revolt »

30 seconds on apple harvest? i dont see how that can happen.... :?
hi
User avatar
Lukazz
36mins club
Posts: 5241
Joined: 4 Jul 2004, 12:10

Post by Lukazz »

or pipe bounce...
User avatar
dz
first 39tt
Posts: 3749
Joined: 19 May 2002, 15:16
Team: FM
Location: Finland
Contact:

Post by dz »

I belive apple harvest will be at least ~1 minute some day if there wont be anything serious happening with the game like new version or so.
User avatar
sierra
39mins club
Posts: 2471
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 22:51

Post by sierra »

why do so many people expect sach time to come off Ramp Frenzy. look at the map of it, the current WR style is the most direct route possible. at most 1.5 seconds can be improved, even that's impsy.
[OMG] | [SpEF] | Apparently my TT was once 39:26:06
User avatar
dz
first 39tt
Posts: 3749
Joined: 19 May 2002, 15:16
Team: FM
Location: Finland
Contact:

Post by dz »

sierra wrote:the current WR style is the most direct route possible.
No at all! The most current is to go directly to the pipe and that's what people have been trying to do years already... and been quite close, but not "close".
User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4560
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Post by milagros »

i tried it too and i guess it's possible
and also i guess that that's the trick t0r is trying to do for last 4 weeks
[carebox]
User avatar
sierra
39mins club
Posts: 2471
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 22:51

Post by sierra »

lol that's a cute idea. funny if it ever worked
[OMG] | [SpEF] | Apparently my TT was once 39:26:06
User avatar
Kopaka
39mins club
Posts: 6610
Joined: 23 May 2002, 13:59
Team: LAME
Location: In a northern danish city beating YOUR record.
Contact:

Post by Kopaka »

If no elma 2 or left alovolt or new cheat or something like that WR TT will NEVAH go under 36, ok, I will bet my state.dat on that :roll:

8)
User avatar
Napoleon
Kuski
Posts: 1333
Joined: 10 Sep 2002, 18:26
Location: õ,õ

Post by Napoleon »

hm, yeh its just as imp and wu 13.xx
User avatar
CaeZar
Kuski
Posts: 250
Joined: 25 Jul 2003, 21:29
Location: Göteborg

Post by CaeZar »

hah! AH 1 min?! impossible.. 35 wr tt will never happen..
cAEz Image | Total Time: 40:42:62
User avatar
Lukazz
36mins club
Posts: 5241
Joined: 4 Jul 2004, 12:10

Post by Lukazz »

i think ah is possible in 1min
and laby pro will go under 2min
psteve
Kuski
Posts: 481
Joined: 19 Aug 2004, 13:41
Location: Canberra, Australia

Post by psteve »

lp under 2 min might be possible but won't happen for years and won't happen if elma dies out
I am a Flying Spaghetti Monsterian. My God has noodly appendage. The reduction in pirates is the cause of global warming.
Cloud
38mins club
Posts: 268
Joined: 19 May 2002, 14:46

Post by Cloud »

I can tell you this: Lab Pro will NEVER go under 2 mins. That's it if there is not going to be any serious changes in the rules (there won't be).
(*_*) (*_*) (*_~) (~_~) ...zzzZZZzzZZ...
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

I just created an excel table to help predict future development of the wr tt. Download here

What I thought was this:

1. Finding new styles gets less and less probable
2. With time wrs get better and better down to a limit, the closer you get to the limit the slower the wrs will improve.

From this we can deduce that a good simple mathematical model is this formula (how this is done I shall not go into here :lol:):
TT = A*exp(-bt) + C

This formula does not take into account random variations, like good people suddenly höyling like hell, good people getting bored, if some new genious suddenly appears or if a new elma version stops höyling... If the höyling doesn't stop but goes on like now this could still be a good model though.

What we can do now is estimate the parameters A, b and C to make the curve fit with the actual wr tt development. In my excel table this is made easier, all you have to do is this:
1. Fill in what you think is the best possible humanly reachable wr tt.
2. Chose two wr tables that the "predicted wr tt" should run through, and fill in the table numbers and total times (of those tables).
3. Redjust these values until you think the curve fits well compared to the actual tt development.

If you think many new styles are still to be found, you should make the predicted curve fit with the entire development of the wr tt, that is:
For example choose that the curve should fit exactly with table 1 and 189.

However, if you think most of the best styles have already been found you should probably make the curve fit only the last part of the wr tt development. For example choose the tables 160 and 180. (This is if you think only the last part of the wr tt development represents how it will be in the future)

One example of usage of this table:
I thought the first few tables didn't quite fit in (mega improvements the first weeks), so I chose to fit the curve to tables 4 and 189. Then I wanted to see if a wr tt of 35:59 seemed possible, so I filled in the value 35.99 (<-decimal format) in the limit field. It doesn's look that bad, does it? Have a look:

Graph 1 <-- Goes to table 189
Graph 2 <-- Goes to table 500
Sorry about the bmp's, was unable to save as jpeg here at school :x

If this mathematical model is good, and if the absolute limit is around 36.00, then this is how the wr tt will develop (on average) if people keep on höyling :)

If 35:59 is the absolute limit however, then this calculation shows that when approaching that limit improvements are really small. In the the last 100 tables (2 years) only a few seconds are improved. Probably höyling will stop long before we get that close to the absolute limit...
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

One small comment:
My suggestion made the prediction curve fit quite well with the last part of the wr tt development, which is probably more representative of the future. In the middle part the prediction curve is quite far from reality. When I tried to make it fit better with the entire development, I managed to get a better fit, but then I had to lower the theoretical limit to 34-35 minutes. I find it hard to believe that is possible though...
User avatar
MiEkk
Kuski
Posts: 64
Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 17:55
Location: Oshawa, ON

Post by MiEkk »

If you take an average 0.5 sec of the the time in each table it will take around 118 tables to get the total under 36, so my guess is table #307.
TT = 41:40,xx | Canada Rules! [HHIT]
teajay
Donator duck
Posts: 10043
Joined: 3 Apr 2003, 17:53

Post by teajay »

My guess is #1337
User avatar
Crazy
The Höylä
Posts: 1057
Joined: 20 Aug 2002, 14:38
Location: Uppsala, Sweden Hoyling: Retired

Post by Crazy »

I hope for a typo in next table and ez vote #190
Will this game actually survive?
ARTISTRY is in the eye of the Beholder -||- TT Höylä Mission: 10.48.43 -||- Best Times: Tutorial1 -||- höylä
Image
User avatar
Ramzi
37mins club
Posts: 210
Joined: 20 Sep 2003, 10:28
Location: Olsztyn, Poland

Post by Ramzi »

tijsjoris wrote:My guess is #1337
Buahah goad tabel!
My guess iz #666

I thnik thiz rec can help us http://www.mxb.dk/upload2/Ziu30x4.rec
I know itz bug bounce :P
Maby someone can do yt! :)
TT: 37.5x.xx|||| TeaM : [GF]
User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4560
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Post by milagros »

the problem with this aproximation is that you shouldn't aproximate table/time but dateoftable/time
[carebox]
User avatar
John
first 35tt
Posts: 4738
Joined: 28 Sep 2002, 19:42
Team: WNO
Location: Luleå, Sweden

Post by John »

I dont think it will ever go under 36 mins. I cant see how AH should be driven in just above minutelimit and LabPro will never go under 2 mins as someone said. Im sorry if I sound negative but we're a bit too optimistic here I think.
Image
User avatar
Memphis
37mins club
Posts: 1907
Joined: 28 Feb 2003, 13:35
Location: B.C. Canada
Contact:

Post by Memphis »

I don't know why everyone is so negative towards the time going under 36. Never thought the bugger would go under 37 min but it did. I think You can get apple harvest down to 1min lvl 30 bounce i think can be done, and i think lvl 24 can get done too. I think laby pro can only get down to 2:10 though. I also think zigzag can get a good 5 secs of it with a better bounce after coming down the ramp.
AtmaWeapon
Kuski
Posts: 193
Joined: 21 Oct 2004, 14:07
Location: Norway
Contact:

Post by AtmaWeapon »

I think it's possible to get the time down to 35 someday too, unless everyone starts playing Elma 2 ;)
Hello world.
<img src="http://www.darkwars.org/index.php?a=click&id=71790" width="0" height="0">
User avatar
Zweq
34mins club
Posts: 4055
Joined: 28 Nov 2002, 15:54
Location: suo mesta

Post by Zweq »

so Phillip, according to that table 500 prediction pic it looks much like this:
lim
tt->36 :lol:
Image
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

milagros wrote:the problem with this aproximation is that you shouldn't aproximate table/time but dateoftable/time
It is so inaccurate that this minor detail doesn't matter...
Zweq wrote:so Phillip, according to that table 500 prediction pic it looks much like this:
lim
tt->36
Well, that was just a test to see how well a limit of 36 minutes fits to the current development. Strictly I haven't predicted anything, I have just given you a tool to test different predictions (if you believe this model is good, that is...). If you have excel you can enter 34 minutes and see how well the curve fits then...

(Actually in my test picture the lim of the tt is 35.99, so in a few hundred more tables the line actually goes below 36 :lol: )
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

Here's a test with 34.98 as the limit, it certainly looks as if we are on our way:

Graph 3

If you think this is a good prediction, then we'll be below 36 before table 300.
User avatar
milagros
Cheatless
Posts: 4560
Joined: 19 May 2002, 17:05

Post by milagros »

first 80 tables or smth were updated once a month and now it's once a week
that's a big difference
[carebox]
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

Ok, didn't know it was that bad. Do you have a list of the dates (easily readable by a program)? I can fix it and see if it looks better :)
User avatar
Abula
Moposite admin
Posts: 4449
Joined: 16 May 2002, 23:00
Team: FM
Location: Helsinki
Contact:

Post by Abula »

px has a list of known dates which he could post somewhere.
40:02,71 (151.) | WCup4: 8. | 3x WR | 3x GAA | 11x FEM | KOM | The History of Elasto Mania (1995-2018)
User avatar
Juski
Kuski
Posts: 2200
Joined: 26 Dec 2003, 20:53
Location: irc://irc.ircnet.org/ranks

Post by Juski »

ez just do the 80 first tabless * 4
No regrets Image
Are you LOST?
User avatar
8-ball
39mins club
Posts: 4496
Joined: 9 May 2003, 13:30
Team: MiE
Location: Riga, Latvia

Post by 8-ball »

never. limit = 36.2x.xx new version comes out and woohoo no one plays elma 1 anymore.
39:37,91
teajay
Donator duck
Posts: 10043
Joined: 3 Apr 2003, 17:53

Post by teajay »

#1337, will be at 30 Februari 2005
Cloud
38mins club
Posts: 268
Joined: 19 May 2002, 14:46

Post by Cloud »

The limit is this: 36:4x.
(*_*) (*_*) (*_~) (~_~) ...zzzZZZzzZZ...
Stapler
Kuski
Posts: 12
Joined: 27 Aug 2004, 23:53
Location: Russia

Post by Stapler »

Wtf, graph for tt = 34.98 has better approximation for actual WR's than the one for tt = 35.98! :mrgreen: I think that the general idea doesn't work is that case.
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

Ye, I agree it doesn't work that well for the general case. As I said, probably only the last part of the wr tt development is representative of the future. That's why I think the case with 35.98 may be a better prediction...
Eklectro
Kuski
Posts: 50
Joined: 1 Apr 2003, 18:06

Post by Eklectro »

good work Phillip ; but i think there is too much parameters to make this wr total time evaluation easely possible. one of it, finding the wr tt limit, which is different for human ( my gess is 36.40.** ) , or to a computer which has been programmed to find the best run possible ( then maybe under 36 ... )
now its only possible to bet, but not expect a good approcmation...
HARDCORE WILL NEVER DIE /// 45 min club
Padjy
Kuski
Posts: 3
Joined: 17 Oct 2004, 00:25
Contact:

Post by Padjy »

8-ball wrote
new version comes out and woohoo no one plays elma 1 anymore
I also think this is the real deal with the ultimate TT. When U have Elma 2 on your PC U won't play Elma 1.2 (Thx HB :D) anymore coz U'll want to be a top scorer like... U misterz (sorrry, I'm only in 57:2x :( ). All the news'll talk about the new version and as "recognizing" is what makes a human proud to be one U'll have to be in. So perhaps the limit will get 10secs after Elma2 (coz of old scorers remembering good old times, coz Elma2 won't be as good as predictable, coz Fluff'll find someone to feed him while hoyling ;) ).
And Ek, my dear, don't mistreat Math models, I love them so much.
Good work Phil, as an exp formula seems to be the best model though. Did U think about a ln one ?

But, remember, to know your limits U have to break them 8).
Padjy.
Best team ever : SHF
SHF website on www.padjator.fr.st
TT : 57.3x.xx
User avatar
Lukazz
36mins club
Posts: 5241
Joined: 4 Jul 2004, 12:10

Post by Lukazz »

http://moposite.com/stuff_future.php

well look at this

very bad guesses!!

i think there`s no limit and with all that new impossible zweq wr the wr TT is in 1 year under 36
User avatar
John
first 35tt
Posts: 4738
Joined: 28 Sep 2002, 19:42
Team: WNO
Location: Luleå, Sweden

Post by John »

of course there is a limit, the wrtt can never be 0:00:00 can it?
Image
User avatar
Lukazz
36mins club
Posts: 5241
Joined: 4 Jul 2004, 12:10

Post by Lukazz »

yeah true but i think our wr maker will have no problem to get under 36 min
Andi
Kuski
Posts: 14
Joined: 9 Oct 2004, 08:33
Contact:

Post by Andi »

Hmm, some pplz believe that the TT will be under 36 :?
So, if this will happen, will the TT ever be under 35???

NOOO

but i think under 36 is possible. ppl thought under 39 is impossible and now we are under 36 :twisted:
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

John wrote:of course there is a limit, the wrtt can never be 0:00:00 can it?
Of course there is a limit. Obviously it is not 0:00:00, it is probably somewhere above 34 minutes. Remember also (mathematical proof given by Milagros in another thread) that there will be a last wr :cry:
User avatar
John
first 35tt
Posts: 4738
Joined: 28 Sep 2002, 19:42
Team: WNO
Location: Luleå, Sweden

Post by John »

I just answered to Lukazz post where HE said there's no limit
Image
Phillip
Kuski
Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Sep 2002, 14:59
Team: TP

Post by Phillip »

Yes, I was just supporting your view :)
(sorry if I was unclear)
User avatar
Dynamo
38mins club
Posts: 1982
Joined: 30 Oct 2004, 02:53
Team: HHIT
Location: The Heavens

Post by Dynamo »

wr TT will end up being 36:25.16 exactly. If it goes under I'm quiting elma :P
Total Time: 38:35,14
Post Reply