When will the WR TT be under 36?!

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Zweq
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When will the WR TT be under 36?!

Post by Zweq » 31 Oct 2004, 20:32

I hope people hasn't got bored to this kind of topics :D, but its just so lovely to read these after some years and notice how wrong some people actually was. Of course its very hard to forecast what happens in the future especially when elma 2.0 might fuck the development up ;), but we can always guess the table number, aight?.

My personal guess is #281 based on:
#077: 39:57,28
#099: 38:59,41
=22 tables
#099: 38:59,41
#135: 37:57,66
=36 tables
#135: 37:57,66
#189: 36:59,17
=54 tables
#189: 36:59,17
#281: 35:59:99 :P
=92 tables
(http://www.moposite.com/lists/wr_stats/ ... opment.txt )
well, old stats gives some direction but still 100% guess
btw remember to write those funny comments like: 'OMFG NEVER GONA BE ANDER' so we can laugh at you when the time comes

ps. it wont go under 36
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Post by milagros » 31 Oct 2004, 21:12

i guess wr will never be under 36
not because it isn't possible, but because of new version and so on..
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Post by Juski » 31 Oct 2004, 21:57

if elma 2.0 nat come es 324
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Post by Napoleon » 31 Oct 2004, 22:52

as i said in other topic, under 36 wont happen
omg sach wise i am :x

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Post by Ramone » 1 Nov 2004, 11:00

Why is under 36 so imossible? Look at Apple Harvest, just a new style there (30 sec style) and we´re allready under. Or 59 sec style to AH, then just some hoyl and 10 secs of from Ramp Frenzy. 10 From labby pro etc... soon under... I guess #194.

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Post by Revolt » 1 Nov 2004, 11:19

30 seconds on apple harvest? i dont see how that can happen.... :?
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Post by Lukazz » 1 Nov 2004, 11:45

or pipe bounce...

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Post by dz » 1 Nov 2004, 13:07

I belive apple harvest will be at least ~1 minute some day if there wont be anything serious happening with the game like new version or so.

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Post by sierra » 1 Nov 2004, 13:19

why do so many people expect sach time to come off Ramp Frenzy. look at the map of it, the current WR style is the most direct route possible. at most 1.5 seconds can be improved, even that's impsy.
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Post by dz » 1 Nov 2004, 13:25

sierra wrote:the current WR style is the most direct route possible.
No at all! The most current is to go directly to the pipe and that's what people have been trying to do years already... and been quite close, but not "close".

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Post by milagros » 1 Nov 2004, 14:26

i tried it too and i guess it's possible
and also i guess that that's the trick t0r is trying to do for last 4 weeks
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Post by sierra » 1 Nov 2004, 14:50

lol that's a cute idea. funny if it ever worked
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Post by Kopaka » 1 Nov 2004, 16:55

If no elma 2 or left alovolt or new cheat or something like that WR TT will NEVAH go under 36, ok, I will bet my state.dat on that :roll:

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Post by Napoleon » 1 Nov 2004, 17:01

hm, yeh its just as imp and wu 13.xx

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Post by CaeZar » 1 Nov 2004, 17:03

hah! AH 1 min?! impossible.. 35 wr tt will never happen..
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Post by Lukazz » 1 Nov 2004, 17:13

i think ah is possible in 1min
and laby pro will go under 2min

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Post by psteve » 1 Nov 2004, 17:27

lp under 2 min might be possible but won't happen for years and won't happen if elma dies out
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Post by Cloud » 1 Nov 2004, 17:57

I can tell you this: Lab Pro will NEVER go under 2 mins. That's it if there is not going to be any serious changes in the rules (there won't be).
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Post by Phillip » 1 Nov 2004, 18:46

I just created an excel table to help predict future development of the wr tt. Download here

What I thought was this:

1. Finding new styles gets less and less probable
2. With time wrs get better and better down to a limit, the closer you get to the limit the slower the wrs will improve.

From this we can deduce that a good simple mathematical model is this formula (how this is done I shall not go into here :lol:):
TT = A*exp(-bt) + C

This formula does not take into account random variations, like good people suddenly höyling like hell, good people getting bored, if some new genious suddenly appears or if a new elma version stops höyling... If the höyling doesn't stop but goes on like now this could still be a good model though.

What we can do now is estimate the parameters A, b and C to make the curve fit with the actual wr tt development. In my excel table this is made easier, all you have to do is this:
1. Fill in what you think is the best possible humanly reachable wr tt.
2. Chose two wr tables that the "predicted wr tt" should run through, and fill in the table numbers and total times (of those tables).
3. Redjust these values until you think the curve fits well compared to the actual tt development.

If you think many new styles are still to be found, you should make the predicted curve fit with the entire development of the wr tt, that is:
For example choose that the curve should fit exactly with table 1 and 189.

However, if you think most of the best styles have already been found you should probably make the curve fit only the last part of the wr tt development. For example choose the tables 160 and 180. (This is if you think only the last part of the wr tt development represents how it will be in the future)

One example of usage of this table:
I thought the first few tables didn't quite fit in (mega improvements the first weeks), so I chose to fit the curve to tables 4 and 189. Then I wanted to see if a wr tt of 35:59 seemed possible, so I filled in the value 35.99 (<-decimal format) in the limit field. It doesn's look that bad, does it? Have a look:

Graph 1 <-- Goes to table 189
Graph 2 <-- Goes to table 500
Sorry about the bmp's, was unable to save as jpeg here at school :x

If this mathematical model is good, and if the absolute limit is around 36.00, then this is how the wr tt will develop (on average) if people keep on höyling :)

If 35:59 is the absolute limit however, then this calculation shows that when approaching that limit improvements are really small. In the the last 100 tables (2 years) only a few seconds are improved. Probably höyling will stop long before we get that close to the absolute limit...

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Post by Phillip » 1 Nov 2004, 18:52

One small comment:
My suggestion made the prediction curve fit quite well with the last part of the wr tt development, which is probably more representative of the future. In the middle part the prediction curve is quite far from reality. When I tried to make it fit better with the entire development, I managed to get a better fit, but then I had to lower the theoretical limit to 34-35 minutes. I find it hard to believe that is possible though...

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Post by MiEkk » 1 Nov 2004, 18:56

If you take an average 0.5 sec of the the time in each table it will take around 118 tables to get the total under 36, so my guess is table #307.
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Post by teajay » 1 Nov 2004, 19:18

My guess is #1337

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Post by Crazy » 1 Nov 2004, 19:41

I hope for a typo in next table and ez vote #190
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Post by Ramzi » 1 Nov 2004, 20:28

tijsjoris wrote:My guess is #1337
Buahah goad tabel!
My guess iz #666

I thnik thiz rec can help us http://www.mxb.dk/upload2/Ziu30x4.rec
I know itz bug bounce :P
Maby someone can do yt! :)
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Post by milagros » 2 Nov 2004, 01:31

the problem with this aproximation is that you shouldn't aproximate table/time but dateoftable/time
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Post by John » 2 Nov 2004, 02:07

I dont think it will ever go under 36 mins. I cant see how AH should be driven in just above minutelimit and LabPro will never go under 2 mins as someone said. Im sorry if I sound negative but we're a bit too optimistic here I think.
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Post by Memphis » 2 Nov 2004, 07:27

I don't know why everyone is so negative towards the time going under 36. Never thought the bugger would go under 37 min but it did. I think You can get apple harvest down to 1min lvl 30 bounce i think can be done, and i think lvl 24 can get done too. I think laby pro can only get down to 2:10 though. I also think zigzag can get a good 5 secs of it with a better bounce after coming down the ramp.

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Post by AtmaWeapon » 2 Nov 2004, 07:33

I think it's possible to get the time down to 35 someday too, unless everyone starts playing Elma 2 ;)
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Post by Zweq » 2 Nov 2004, 09:13

so Phillip, according to that table 500 prediction pic it looks much like this:
lim
tt->36 :lol:
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Post by Phillip » 2 Nov 2004, 12:09

milagros wrote:the problem with this aproximation is that you shouldn't aproximate table/time but dateoftable/time
It is so inaccurate that this minor detail doesn't matter...
Zweq wrote:so Phillip, according to that table 500 prediction pic it looks much like this:
lim
tt->36
Well, that was just a test to see how well a limit of 36 minutes fits to the current development. Strictly I haven't predicted anything, I have just given you a tool to test different predictions (if you believe this model is good, that is...). If you have excel you can enter 34 minutes and see how well the curve fits then...

(Actually in my test picture the lim of the tt is 35.99, so in a few hundred more tables the line actually goes below 36 :lol: )

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Post by Phillip » 2 Nov 2004, 12:27

Here's a test with 34.98 as the limit, it certainly looks as if we are on our way:

Graph 3

If you think this is a good prediction, then we'll be below 36 before table 300.

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Post by milagros » 2 Nov 2004, 12:38

first 80 tables or smth were updated once a month and now it's once a week
that's a big difference
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Post by Phillip » 2 Nov 2004, 12:55

Ok, didn't know it was that bad. Do you have a list of the dates (easily readable by a program)? I can fix it and see if it looks better :)

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Post by Abula » 2 Nov 2004, 13:29

px has a list of known dates which he could post somewhere.
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Post by Juski » 2 Nov 2004, 13:46

ez just do the 80 first tabless * 4
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Post by 8-ball » 2 Nov 2004, 15:37

never. limit = 36.2x.xx new version comes out and woohoo no one plays elma 1 anymore.
39:37,91

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Post by teajay » 2 Nov 2004, 22:51

#1337, will be at 30 Februari 2005

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Post by Cloud » 2 Nov 2004, 23:58

The limit is this: 36:4x.
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Post by Stapler » 3 Nov 2004, 06:08

Wtf, graph for tt = 34.98 has better approximation for actual WR's than the one for tt = 35.98! :mrgreen: I think that the general idea doesn't work is that case.

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Post by Phillip » 3 Nov 2004, 13:26

Ye, I agree it doesn't work that well for the general case. As I said, probably only the last part of the wr tt development is representative of the future. That's why I think the case with 35.98 may be a better prediction...

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Post by Eklectro » 3 Nov 2004, 21:39

good work Phillip ; but i think there is too much parameters to make this wr total time evaluation easely possible. one of it, finding the wr tt limit, which is different for human ( my gess is 36.40.** ) , or to a computer which has been programmed to find the best run possible ( then maybe under 36 ... )
now its only possible to bet, but not expect a good approcmation...
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Post by Padjy » 6 Nov 2004, 21:17

8-ball wrote
new version comes out and woohoo no one plays elma 1 anymore
I also think this is the real deal with the ultimate TT. When U have Elma 2 on your PC U won't play Elma 1.2 (Thx HB :D) anymore coz U'll want to be a top scorer like... U misterz (sorrry, I'm only in 57:2x :( ). All the news'll talk about the new version and as "recognizing" is what makes a human proud to be one U'll have to be in. So perhaps the limit will get 10secs after Elma2 (coz of old scorers remembering good old times, coz Elma2 won't be as good as predictable, coz Fluff'll find someone to feed him while hoyling ;) ).
And Ek, my dear, don't mistreat Math models, I love them so much.
Good work Phil, as an exp formula seems to be the best model though. Did U think about a ln one ?

But, remember, to know your limits U have to break them 8).
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Post by Lukazz » 6 Nov 2004, 21:25

http://moposite.com/stuff_future.php

well look at this

very bad guesses!!

i think there`s no limit and with all that new impossible zweq wr the wr TT is in 1 year under 36

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Post by John » 7 Nov 2004, 00:09

of course there is a limit, the wrtt can never be 0:00:00 can it?
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Post by Lukazz » 7 Nov 2004, 09:41

yeah true but i think our wr maker will have no problem to get under 36 min

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Post by Andi » 7 Nov 2004, 12:20

Hmm, some pplz believe that the TT will be under 36 :?
So, if this will happen, will the TT ever be under 35???

NOOO

but i think under 36 is possible. ppl thought under 39 is impossible and now we are under 36 :twisted:

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Post by Phillip » 8 Nov 2004, 14:28

John wrote:of course there is a limit, the wrtt can never be 0:00:00 can it?
Of course there is a limit. Obviously it is not 0:00:00, it is probably somewhere above 34 minutes. Remember also (mathematical proof given by Milagros in another thread) that there will be a last wr :cry:

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Post by John » 8 Nov 2004, 16:09

I just answered to Lukazz post where HE said there's no limit
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Post by Phillip » 8 Nov 2004, 16:12

Yes, I was just supporting your view :)
(sorry if I was unclear)

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Post by Dynamo » 16 Nov 2004, 22:15

wr TT will end up being 36:25.16 exactly. If it goes under I'm quiting elma :P
Total Time: 38:35,14

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