What would WR TT be after 3 years?

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 19 Jul 2009, 14:31

hey zweq, pipe bounce is possible without a bug...

Lukazz · Post by **Lukazz** » 19 Jul 2009, 14:34

i think 34 will be reached sooner or later, but not in 3 years. maybe in 6-7 years. and i think WRs will stop improving at 34.3x or something, and then there won't be any bigger improvements than 0,0x anymore.

Tm · Post by Tm » 19 Jul 2009, 16:45

I'm totally bored. So here you go - my perception of how things will go on during next 3 years.

1. Warm Up 0:13,99 (lucky run), (sec break)
2. Flat Track 0:15,04 (nobody will hoyl it for wr)
3. Twin Peaks 0:17,73 (after hoyl-session with "new" style. jt gets his wr and this time will never be beaten)
4. Over and Under 0:29,64
5. Uphill Battle 0:19,82 (Jarkko)
6. Long Haul 0:30,07 (too annoying end to do 29,xx)
7. Hi Flyer 0:29,47 (wild guess), (sec break)
8. Tag 0:20,69 (zyntifox comes back for a little while)
9. Tunnel Terror 0:54,51
10. The Steppes 0:10,73
11. Gravity Ride 0:22,98 (sec break)
12. Islands in the Sky 0:20,75 (Krus strikes back!)
13. Hill Legend 0:13,97 (Some lucky run by Xiphias between battles)
14. Loop-de-Loop 0:17,61
15. Serpents Tale 0:50,34 (sec break)
16. New Wave 1:23,01 (nobody will try real hard on this lev too)
17. Labyrinth 0:53,62 (decent run?)
18. Spiral 0:44,36
19. Turnaround 0:35,94 (sec break)
20. Upside Down 0:57,81 (sec break)
21. Hangman 0:14,39 (with luki's alo style maybe??)
22. Slalom 0:38,73 (hoyled enough)
23. Quick Round 0:35,93 (sec break)
24. Ramp Frenzy 0:40,87 (sec break)
25. Precarious 0:24,26 (guess nobody will hoyl it)
26. Circuitous 0:21,75
27. Shelf Life 0:34,12
28. Bounce Back 0:49,66
29. Headbanger 0:42,89
30. Pipe 0:32,82 (with sc - 29,70)
31. Animal Farm 1:11,91 (no idea, wild guess)
32. Steep Corner 0:42,51
33. Zig-Zag 0:54,97 (sec break)
34. Bumpy Journey 0:36,41 (ICE out of the table :/)
35. Labyrinth Pro 2:13,46 (lazy people, so no 2:12,xx),(sec break)
36. Fruit in the Den 0:56,98 (sec break)
37. Jaws 0:53,42 (noone hoyls it. again)
38. Curvaceous 0:29,08
39. Haircut 0:38,81
40. Double Trouble 1:21,93 (sec break)
41. Framework 0:38,78
42. Enduro 0:47,23 (Level - ghost. Everybody ignores it so no 46,xx)
43. He He 0:56,04
44. Freefall 0:11,46 (hoyled enough?)
45. Sink 0:32,53 (hoyled enough..)
46. Bowling 0:52,34 (finally, fine run. ramone?), (sec break)
47. Enigma 0:19,10 (surprisingly, a run with a bounce which won't be a target of dispute)
48. Downhill 0:44,94 (sec break)
49. What the Heck 0:37,95 (sec break)
50. Expert System 0:52,50 (sec break)
51. Tricks Abound 0:42,54
52. Hang Tight 0:24,62
53. Hooked 0:17,05 (decent run by Jarkko)
54. Apple Harvest 1:12,57 (someone will do serious hoyl-session) (sec break)

Total 35:26,12 (35:23,00) <-- Don't know if i made calculations right.

Zweq · Post by **Zweq** » 19 Jul 2009, 17:51

nice list but i think long levels can be potentially much better than that in 3 years. also you dont take new unknown styles into account, which is natural. wonder what people would say if someone said 38.32 downhill and 1.18.53 new wave, they're both possible, but within allowed limits? (bug) i dont think so

my guesses are just as bad as yours though.

nick-o-matic · Post by **nick-o-matic** » 19 Jul 2009, 21:36

I wanted to come up with a new method for estimating what the WR TT will be in three years; a method that wouldn't be based totally on guessing. So I drew a graph with WR TT (seconds) and time (weeks) and fitted an exponential graph to the data:

(notice that I eliminated the crazy improvements between tables #261 and #265 because the 20+ sec rapid drop was such unnatural WR TT development and fucked my graphs up. I deleted those tables and added 20 seconds to all the later tables and afterwards made my graph extrapolating result smaller with the same 20 seconds)

Anyway, I tried fitting many different types of exponential functions to my final data, but the results remained the same: WR TT even in infinity hardly gets improved! No can do - the limit has been reached!

pawq · Post by **pawq** » 19 Jul 2009, 22:05

the limit has been reached?? haeh, no wai

dunno why but the graph fails, i still bet 35:10

Madness · Post by **Madness** » 19 Jul 2009, 23:43

My calculations predicts:
Table #367: 34:59,99
Date: 3. March 2012 (29. January 2012 - 6. April 2012)

Bismuth · Post by **Bismuth** » 20 Jul 2009, 00:32

367, 2012? No way. I think 34 TT will come around table 360-380, but if it comes, it'll be in 2014.

Madness · Post by **Madness** » 20 Jul 2009, 11:04

Bismuth wrote:367, 2012? No way. I think 34 TT will come around table 360-380, but if it comes, it'll be in 2014.

Fucking calculations...

My guess is May 2015.

Honza · Post by **Honza** » 20 Jul 2009, 13:39

I can't hold my tongue, ez 34!!!

EDIT: This is not much of a logical thinking kinda guess, wrs come without asking wheter they are sax or freking mango impsy better and get pwned next table, thus I stick to the statistical facts: One guy(John) could do 35,xx TT, so why couldn't the rest of the elma scene help him cut down one goddamn minute? It's always been like that, kuskis would never think about TT that appeared the next year, now guessing three years is just psychological thing cause people think that wr are so max right now, but they are just as same as they were last year, so three years is long enough for another minute break.

Chris · Post by **Chris** » 20 Jul 2009, 15:43

Bismuth wrote:367, 2012? No way. I think 34 TT will come around table 360-380, but if it comes, it'll be in 2014.

My calculations says that 34 TT will come at table #356-7.

pawq · Post by **pawq** » 20 Jul 2009, 15:49

personally i dont really like calculations related to WRs and WR TTs, because they almost always seem to fail

Chris · Post by **Chris** » 20 Jul 2009, 15:55

Pawq wrote:personally i dont really like calculations related to WRs and WR TTs, because they almost always seem to fail

Mine is obviously wrong.

Honza · Post by **Honza** » 20 Jul 2009, 20:19

Wanna try 3 yrs TT balle, Madness?

ez finish labpro thorough Christmas

Lukazz · Post by **Lukazz** » 20 Jul 2009, 20:28

Honza wrote:It's always been like that, kuskis would never think about TT that appeared the next year, now guessing three years is just psychological thing cause people think that wr are so max right now, but they are just as same as they were last year, so three years is long enough for another minute break.

ye, but now all the shortest routes are done. i mean it was obvious for example that ramp frenzy could be done some secs faster than 51 with brutal or some other style where you jump to the left directly. same thing for hi flyer. the only lev where maybe there is some 5 sec faster style is apple harvest imo.

pawq · Post by **pawq** » 20 Jul 2009, 20:42

id also mention lab pro, upside and new wave, + obviously minor improves (0.05-1.00s) in every other level. it gives like -40s for infinity. and for 3 years? maybe -30 or -25s. it gives 35:12-35:17 tt. most of ppl suggested something around that

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 21 Jul 2009, 00:31

Lukazz wrote:
Honza wrote:It's always been like that, kuskis would never think about TT that appeared the next year, now guessing three years is just psychological thing cause people think that wr are so max right now, but they are just as same as they were last year, so three years is long enough for another minute break.
ye, but now all the shortest routes are done. i mean it was obvious for example that ramp frenzy could be done some secs faster than 51 with brutal or some other style where you jump to the left directly. same thing for hi flyer. the only lev where maybe there is some 5 sec faster style is apple harvest imo.

not really

John · Post by **John** » 21 Jul 2009, 00:34

Lukazz wrote:..... but now all the shortest routes are done.....

Take that back while you still can ;o New styles are made every now and then, far from all of them are old styles who simply hasn't been made yet. We don't know what the future holds WR- and style-wise.

Nice list Tm, it seems reasonable. Many of those times will still probably be pwned tho.

Lukazz · Post by **Lukazz** » 21 Jul 2009, 01:34

what do you mean by "old styles"? i can just think about pipe bounce, which may be possible but would only improve some 3 secs, and new wave left first, which is of course not possible.

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 21 Jul 2009, 04:00

-steppes with akb's thing
-new wave bounce (impsy?)
-ramp frenzy staight (impsy?)
-pipe bounce
-animal farm bounce
-lab pro enhancement (seen in xiph's rec)
-curva bounce start

-4 other styles i can't tell :X

nick-o-matic · Post by **nick-o-matic** » 21 Jul 2009, 05:54

+ Expert system alternative route potential old new route?

Lukazz · Post by **Lukazz** » 21 Jul 2009, 14:07

CuLiNo wrote:-steppes with akb's thing

what do you mean? o_O head over first?

-new wave bounce (impsy?)
-ramp frenzy staight (impsy?)

Both impsy.

-pipe bounce

Ye, already mentioned that one.

-animal farm bounce

What do you mean?

-lab pro enhancement (seen in xiph's rec)

Was it faster?

pawq · Post by **pawq** » 21 Jul 2009, 15:41

Lukazz wrote:
CuLiNo wrote:-steppes with akb's thing
what do you mean? o_O head over first?

yes, head first

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 21 Jul 2009, 22:43

to Lukazz:

http://up.k10x.net/ayofimfskiayt/10poss.rec
http://up.k10x.net/leiugecleoqpx/31bel.rec

don't know who has driven teh

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 21 Jul 2009, 22:44

nick-o-matic wrote:+ Expert system alternative route potential old new route?

don't know if it's faster

Xiphias · Post by **Xiphias** » 21 Jul 2009, 22:59

i thjink that nigger 10poss is mine.. at least I got one 10PossibleMaybe rec.. exact same

very far from teh

but guess it is possible xd

31 is nab rec I had better style.. but hard maybe impsy

Lukazz · Post by **Lukazz** » 22 Jul 2009, 00:45

CuLiNo wrote:to Lukazz:

http://up.k10x.net/ayofimfskiayt/10poss.rec
http://up.k10x.net/leiugecleoqpx/31bel.rec

don't know who has driven teh

well, the 31 rec doesnt look very possible to be honest.^^

Dynamo · Post by **Dynamo** » 22 Jul 2009, 01:15

Raven · Post by **Raven** » 22 Jul 2009, 02:25

Dynamo wrote:5.

5. ?

culinko · Post by **culinko** » 22 Jul 2009, 03:10

Xiphias wrote:i thjink that nigger 10poss is mine.. at least I got one 10PossibleMaybe rec.. exact same

very far from teh but guess it is possible xd

31 is nab rec I had better style.. but hard maybe impsy

i had one too, but it seemed maxxx0r hard and even slower

Xiphias · Post by **Xiphias** » 22 Jul 2009, 11:15

your noob style above the snake and down sux ^^

ap · Post by ap » 22 Jul 2009, 16:59

Tm wrote:

7. Hi Flyer 0:29,47 (wild guess), (sec break)

i think HF will be under 29 in 3 years,would be a shame if it wouldn't.
on that note,missed 30:0x ;[.

ribot · Post by **ribot** » 22 Jul 2009, 21:23

how about if someone made a graph history of each level?

and then we can estimate what levels could get new style, and think that if simpler levels like warmup can still be beaten, a little longer levels like twin peaks and over and under still have quite some way to go. levels like lab pro could still be improved with seconds.

blaaaah

Madness · Post by **Madness** » 22 Jul 2009, 22:26

I have a better idea, let's wait 3 years. Anyhow every graphs and calculations will fail.

Mawane · Post by **Mawane** » 23 Jul 2009, 00:21

made draft graphics of all single internals
http://up.k10x.net/ikwymzynvjdic/Classeur1.xls

8-ball · Post by **8-ball** » 25 Jul 2009, 16:46

i also think it will never go under 35, unless bugbounces are accepted.
and post of the year by zweq!

jw · Post by jw » 3 Aug 2009, 10:51

my guess: 35.03

roope · Post by **roope** » 3 Aug 2009, 12:07

I'm saying some 35:1x:xx

With some calculation lajk 2 seconds off tt every 2 months for 36 months.

Morgan · Post by **Morgan** » 3 Aug 2009, 13:49

35.2x maybe

Lee · Post by **Lee** » 3 Aug 2009, 15:40

Tm wrote:30. Pipe 0:32,82 (with sc - 29,70)

Lukazz wrote:...i can just think about pipe bounce, which may be possible but would only improve some 3 secs...

try 6 secs lukazz. 26:xx is a possibility for pipe

Igge · Post by **Igge** » 3 Aug 2009, 17:14

roope wrote:With some calculation lajk 2 seconds off tt every 2 months for 36 months.

Why not 1 second off tt every month, Mr. Complicated?

roope · Post by **roope** » 3 Aug 2009, 17:44

Coz I'm mr. complicated. And wr updates ez only once in 2 months :<

Igge · Post by **Igge** » 3 Aug 2009, 17:58

Touché

_FreaK_ · Post by **_FreaK_** » 8 Sep 2009, 22:53

Tm wrote:I'm totally bored. So here you go - my perception of how things will go on during next 3 years.

Oficcially beaten:

5. Uphill Battle 0:19,82 (Jarkko)
13. Hill Legend 0:13,97 (Some lucky run by Xiphias between battles)
28. Bounce Back 0:49,66
52. Hang Tight 0:24,62

Unoficially beaten

43. He He 0:56,04

Heh

Zweq amost did this one;) and he could probably do it much faster

but not yet

46. Bowling 0:52,34 (finally, fine run. ramone?), (sec break)

pawq · Post by **pawq** » 9 Sep 2009, 16:52

and tt of those was 35.26/23. so ez u20 or less ;o

_FreaK_ · Post by **_FreaK_** » 29 Nov 2009, 16:35

and now lets countinue to compare some of the predictions with the unexpected reality

i wont post on the same levs that already were beaten when i wrote last time,only the new ones

so there it goes

Oficially beaten:

7. Hi Flyer 0:29,47 (wild guess), (sec break)
8. Tag 0:20,69 (zyntifox comes back for a little while)
20. Upside Down 0:57,81 (sec break)
23. Quick Round 0:35,93 (sec break)
45. Sink 0:32,53 (hoyled enough..)
edit
27. Shelf Life 0:34,12
35. Labyrinth Pro 2:13,46 (lazy people, so no 2:12,xx),(sec break)

there is one more time that TM actually guessed just right

49. What the Heck 0:37,95 (sec break)

and some times that already got very near to predicted records;)
17. Labyrinth 0:53,62 (decent run?) Current wr is only 0,02 slower
12. Islands in the Sky 0:20,75 (Krus strikes back!) Current wr is only 0,01 slower
3. Twin Peaks 0:17,73 (after hoyl-session with "new" style. jt gets his wr and this time will never be beaten) Current wr is only 0,01 slower

Seems that Kazan killed two more of those target times

so i edit this post a lil bit

so, lets say wrTT could be like 35,10,00 in then when the most predicted "end of days" should happen =)))
Let's hope that doesn't happen and the wr tt will sometimes go down to 34.xx.xx

Labs · Post by **Labs** » 15 Jul 2012, 14:40

jw wrote:my guess: 35.03

And we got our winner! Gratz! Wrtt is now 35:03,39 (35:01:98 unofficially - lazy px).

So new round starting now (until 2015 july), my guess is:

34:43:34

Igge · Post by **Igge** » 15 Jul 2012, 15:37

34:41:44

elmas · Post by **elmas** » 15 Jul 2012, 15:44

34.45.92
No calculations, just pure guess

Lousku · Post by **Lousku** » 15 Jul 2012, 15:50

It just depends on activity. Feels like activity in the internal scene comes and goes, so anything can happen.

34:30.00