When will the WR TT be under 36?!
Moderator: Moporators
When will the WR TT be under 36?!
I hope people hasn't got bored to this kind of topics , but its just so lovely to read these after some years and notice how wrong some people actually was. Of course its very hard to forecast what happens in the future especially when elma 2.0 might fuck the development up , but we can always guess the table number, aight?.
My personal guess is #281 based on:
#077: 39:57,28
#099: 38:59,41
=22 tables
#099: 38:59,41
#135: 37:57,66
=36 tables
#135: 37:57,66
#189: 36:59,17
=54 tables
#189: 36:59,17
#281: 35:59:99
=92 tables
(http://www.moposite.com/lists/wr_stats/ ... opment.txt )
well, old stats gives some direction but still 100% guess
btw remember to write those funny comments like: 'OMFG NEVER GONA BE ANDER' so we can laugh at you when the time comes
ps. it wont go under 36
My personal guess is #281 based on:
#077: 39:57,28
#099: 38:59,41
=22 tables
#099: 38:59,41
#135: 37:57,66
=36 tables
#135: 37:57,66
#189: 36:59,17
=54 tables
#189: 36:59,17
#281: 35:59:99
=92 tables
(http://www.moposite.com/lists/wr_stats/ ... opment.txt )
well, old stats gives some direction but still 100% guess
btw remember to write those funny comments like: 'OMFG NEVER GONA BE ANDER' so we can laugh at you when the time comes
ps. it wont go under 36
- Juski
- Kuski
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- Joined: 26 Dec 2003, 20:53
- Location: irc://irc.ircnet.org/ranks
I just created an excel table to help predict future development of the wr tt. Download here
What I thought was this:
1. Finding new styles gets less and less probable
2. With time wrs get better and better down to a limit, the closer you get to the limit the slower the wrs will improve.
From this we can deduce that a good simple mathematical model is this formula (how this is done I shall not go into here ):
TT = A*exp(-bt) + C
This formula does not take into account random variations, like good people suddenly höyling like hell, good people getting bored, if some new genious suddenly appears or if a new elma version stops höyling... If the höyling doesn't stop but goes on like now this could still be a good model though.
What we can do now is estimate the parameters A, b and C to make the curve fit with the actual wr tt development. In my excel table this is made easier, all you have to do is this:
1. Fill in what you think is the best possible humanly reachable wr tt.
2. Chose two wr tables that the "predicted wr tt" should run through, and fill in the table numbers and total times (of those tables).
3. Redjust these values until you think the curve fits well compared to the actual tt development.
If you think many new styles are still to be found, you should make the predicted curve fit with the entire development of the wr tt, that is:
For example choose that the curve should fit exactly with table 1 and 189.
However, if you think most of the best styles have already been found you should probably make the curve fit only the last part of the wr tt development. For example choose the tables 160 and 180. (This is if you think only the last part of the wr tt development represents how it will be in the future)
One example of usage of this table:
I thought the first few tables didn't quite fit in (mega improvements the first weeks), so I chose to fit the curve to tables 4 and 189. Then I wanted to see if a wr tt of 35:59 seemed possible, so I filled in the value 35.99 (<-decimal format) in the limit field. It doesn's look that bad, does it? Have a look:
Graph 1 <-- Goes to table 189
Graph 2 <-- Goes to table 500
Sorry about the bmp's, was unable to save as jpeg here at school
If this mathematical model is good, and if the absolute limit is around 36.00, then this is how the wr tt will develop (on average) if people keep on höyling
If 35:59 is the absolute limit however, then this calculation shows that when approaching that limit improvements are really small. In the the last 100 tables (2 years) only a few seconds are improved. Probably höyling will stop long before we get that close to the absolute limit...
What I thought was this:
1. Finding new styles gets less and less probable
2. With time wrs get better and better down to a limit, the closer you get to the limit the slower the wrs will improve.
From this we can deduce that a good simple mathematical model is this formula (how this is done I shall not go into here ):
TT = A*exp(-bt) + C
This formula does not take into account random variations, like good people suddenly höyling like hell, good people getting bored, if some new genious suddenly appears or if a new elma version stops höyling... If the höyling doesn't stop but goes on like now this could still be a good model though.
What we can do now is estimate the parameters A, b and C to make the curve fit with the actual wr tt development. In my excel table this is made easier, all you have to do is this:
1. Fill in what you think is the best possible humanly reachable wr tt.
2. Chose two wr tables that the "predicted wr tt" should run through, and fill in the table numbers and total times (of those tables).
3. Redjust these values until you think the curve fits well compared to the actual tt development.
If you think many new styles are still to be found, you should make the predicted curve fit with the entire development of the wr tt, that is:
For example choose that the curve should fit exactly with table 1 and 189.
However, if you think most of the best styles have already been found you should probably make the curve fit only the last part of the wr tt development. For example choose the tables 160 and 180. (This is if you think only the last part of the wr tt development represents how it will be in the future)
One example of usage of this table:
I thought the first few tables didn't quite fit in (mega improvements the first weeks), so I chose to fit the curve to tables 4 and 189. Then I wanted to see if a wr tt of 35:59 seemed possible, so I filled in the value 35.99 (<-decimal format) in the limit field. It doesn's look that bad, does it? Have a look:
Graph 1 <-- Goes to table 189
Graph 2 <-- Goes to table 500
Sorry about the bmp's, was unable to save as jpeg here at school
If this mathematical model is good, and if the absolute limit is around 36.00, then this is how the wr tt will develop (on average) if people keep on höyling
If 35:59 is the absolute limit however, then this calculation shows that when approaching that limit improvements are really small. In the the last 100 tables (2 years) only a few seconds are improved. Probably höyling will stop long before we get that close to the absolute limit...
One small comment:
My suggestion made the prediction curve fit quite well with the last part of the wr tt development, which is probably more representative of the future. In the middle part the prediction curve is quite far from reality. When I tried to make it fit better with the entire development, I managed to get a better fit, but then I had to lower the theoretical limit to 34-35 minutes. I find it hard to believe that is possible though...
My suggestion made the prediction curve fit quite well with the last part of the wr tt development, which is probably more representative of the future. In the middle part the prediction curve is quite far from reality. When I tried to make it fit better with the entire development, I managed to get a better fit, but then I had to lower the theoretical limit to 34-35 minutes. I find it hard to believe that is possible though...
Buahah goad tabel!tijsjoris wrote:My guess is #1337
My guess iz #666
I thnik thiz rec can help us http://www.mxb.dk/upload2/Ziu30x4.rec
I know itz bug bounce
Maby someone can do yt!
TT: 37.5x.xx|||| TeaM : [GF]
I don't know why everyone is so negative towards the time going under 36. Never thought the bugger would go under 37 min but it did. I think You can get apple harvest down to 1min lvl 30 bounce i think can be done, and i think lvl 24 can get done too. I think laby pro can only get down to 2:10 though. I also think zigzag can get a good 5 secs of it with a better bounce after coming down the ramp.
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- Kuski
- Posts: 193
- Joined: 21 Oct 2004, 14:07
- Location: Norway
- Contact:
I think it's possible to get the time down to 35 someday too, unless everyone starts playing Elma 2
Hello world.
<img src="http://www.darkwars.org/index.php?a=click&id=71790" width="0" height="0">
<img src="http://www.darkwars.org/index.php?a=click&id=71790" width="0" height="0">
It is so inaccurate that this minor detail doesn't matter...milagros wrote:the problem with this aproximation is that you shouldn't aproximate table/time but dateoftable/time
Well, that was just a test to see how well a limit of 36 minutes fits to the current development. Strictly I haven't predicted anything, I have just given you a tool to test different predictions (if you believe this model is good, that is...). If you have excel you can enter 34 minutes and see how well the curve fits then...Zweq wrote:so Phillip, according to that table 500 prediction pic it looks much like this:
lim
tt->36
(Actually in my test picture the lim of the tt is 35.99, so in a few hundred more tables the line actually goes below 36 )
px has a list of known dates which he could post somewhere.
40:02,71 (151.) | WCup4: 8. | 3x WR | 3x GAA | 11x FEM | KOM | The History of Elasto Mania (1995-2018)
- Juski
- Kuski
- Posts: 2200
- Joined: 26 Dec 2003, 20:53
- Location: irc://irc.ircnet.org/ranks
good work Phillip ; but i think there is too much parameters to make this wr total time evaluation easely possible. one of it, finding the wr tt limit, which is different for human ( my gess is 36.40.** ) , or to a computer which has been programmed to find the best run possible ( then maybe under 36 ... )
now its only possible to bet, but not expect a good approcmation...
now its only possible to bet, but not expect a good approcmation...
HARDCORE WILL NEVER DIE /// 45 min club
8-ball wrote
And Ek, my dear, don't mistreat Math models, I love them so much.
Good work Phil, as an exp formula seems to be the best model though. Did U think about a ln one ?
But, remember, to know your limits U have to break them .
Padjy.
I also think this is the real deal with the ultimate TT. When U have Elma 2 on your PC U won't play Elma 1.2 (Thx HB ) anymore coz U'll want to be a top scorer like... U misterz (sorrry, I'm only in 57:2x ). All the news'll talk about the new version and as "recognizing" is what makes a human proud to be one U'll have to be in. So perhaps the limit will get 10secs after Elma2 (coz of old scorers remembering good old times, coz Elma2 won't be as good as predictable, coz Fluff'll find someone to feed him while hoyling ).new version comes out and woohoo no one plays elma 1 anymore
And Ek, my dear, don't mistreat Math models, I love them so much.
Good work Phil, as an exp formula seems to be the best model though. Did U think about a ln one ?
But, remember, to know your limits U have to break them .
Padjy.
http://moposite.com/stuff_future.php
well look at this
very bad guesses!!
i think there`s no limit and with all that new impossible zweq wr the wr TT is in 1 year under 36
well look at this
very bad guesses!!
i think there`s no limit and with all that new impossible zweq wr the wr TT is in 1 year under 36