Guessing WR second breaks

[Bismuth]

I have a little idea of a game we can play. I list here a whole lot of "possible" second breaks in WR improvements, you make a list of which one will be beaten first. When they get beaten, those who were the closest make the most points. The game ends at the end of 2010, if you guess there won't be such time beaten by then, just say "never".

Example: let's say my list is those 5 breaks:

1. Warm Up u12
2. Apple Harvest u1min
3. Lab Pro u1min

Never
Downhill u50
Enigma u40

1. is first to be done and Never are the ones which won't be before the end of 2010.

Here is the point system:
When a goal is achieved, let's say the 8th time to be achieved, if someone guessed it to be 8th, 10 points. 7-9, 7 points. 6-10, 5 points. 5-11, 4 points. 4-12, 3 points, etc. And at the end (January 2011), 5 points are given per not beaten second break guessed right.


Well, now, here is my list of second breaks! (some may be .x0 for very hoyla levs)


1. Warm Up - 14.00
2. Flat Track - 15.00
3. Over and Under - 29.50
4. Uphill Battle - 19.75
5. Long Haul - 30.00
6. Hi Flyer - 30.00 BEATEN -- 1st
7. The Steppes - 10.75
8. Gravity Ride - 23.00
9. Loop-de-Loop - 17.50
10. Serpents Tale - 50.00
11. New Wave - 1:20.00
12. Labyrinth - 53.00
13. Turnaround - 36.00
14. Ramp Frenzy - 40.00
15. Precarious - 24.00
16. Shelf Life - 34.00 BEATEN -- 2nd
17. Headbanger - 42.00
18. Pipe - 31.00
19. Animal Farm - 1:10.00
20. Zig-Zag - 55.00
21. Labyrinth Pro - 2:12.00
22. Labyrinth Pro - 2:10.00
23. Fruit in the Den - 57.00
24. Jaws - 53.00
25. Curvaceous - 29.00
26. Double Trouble - 1:22.00
27. He He - 56.00
28. Sink - 32.50
29. Bowling - 52.00
30. Downhill - 45.00
31. Expert System - 53.00
32. Tricks Abound - 42.00
33. Hang Tight - 24.50
34. Hooked - 17.00
35. Apple Harvest - 1:12.00
36. Apple Harvest - 1:10.00


Guesses:

Bismuth:

Code: Select all

23.  21.  20.  8.  27.  29.  28.  22.  32.  1.  6.  12.  25.  30.  31.  26.  35.  15.  18.

Lukazz:

Code: Select all

23.  21.  6.  20.  25.  27.

Kortsu:

Code: Select all

4.  33.  34.  21.  30.  23.  6.  27.  35.

FinMan:

Code: Select all

20.

Zweq:

Code: Select all

0.  0.  23.  31.  7.  8.  23.  13.  26.  27.  24.  30.

Raven:

Code: Select all

0.  0.  1.

Standings:

Code: Select all

1. Lukazz  -  5 points
2. Kortsu  -  1 point
3. Bismuth  -  0 points
3. FinMan  -  0 points
3. Zweq  -  0 points
3. Raven  -  0 points

[Lukazz]

to be honest, i don't get it.

[Igge]

I get it, but orka o,o

[John]

Zweq will just do them in order, one by one :)

[Madness]

Bismuth and his ideas...

[Bismuth]

John

And Luki, it's simple, it's simply to guess which one of all these second breaks will happen before the end of 2010, and guess the order.

[Lukazz]

23, 21, 6, 20, 25, 27

[Bismuth]

I suppose everything else is in the "never" category, so I take your guesses and put it in my first posts, when first break comes, I'll give points.

[FinMan]

Next break: Zig Zag.

[Kortsu]

4, 33, 34 (Jarkko the Höylä obv), 21, 30, 23, 6, 27 and 35.

Others not before the end of 2010.

[Bismuth]

Thanks Kortsu. FinMan, please add all your guesses in order because the game is to guess now what will happen for the year to come.

[Lukazz]

why add this "never" list for everyone? it's quite obvious that those who won't become beaten... won't become beaten. o_O

[FinMan]

Bismuth: so i should guess every break in next 10 years? Or should i put ALL of my 1 guesses in order? Would be much funnier to have this game living whole time than to guess for next year and it is dead whole time...

[Bismuth]

Well, ok. I'll remove "never" list and add your one time in the list, FinMan. I thought you believed there would be more than one second break in the next year.

[FinMan]

I guess again after Zig is done.

[Bismuth]

But that's not the aim of the game, to goal is to guess now for the year to come, if you want to only guess which one is next you may do so somewhere else, but here guesses are made now and after there's no change to make.

[Bismuth]

Okay, so, I get a very low number of contestants, but let's try anyway. Hi Flyer has been beaten, so you can't send your guesses anymore.

[Bismuth]

Shelf Life beaten! Surprisingly, no one had placed it in his list. I should have

[Grace]

Lukazz did.

[Bismuth]

No, Shelf Life is #16

[Kazeta]

okay i think 21 and 30 ar going to be the first ones and 18 and 2 last

[Grace]

I See, figures Luki meant level 27

[Zweq]

3rd 25. Curvaceous - 29.00
4th 31. Expert System - 53.00
5th 7. The Steppes - 10.75
6th 8. Gravity Ride - 23.00
7th 23. Fruit in the Den - 57.00
8th 13. Turnaround - 36.00
9th 26. Double Trouble - 1:22.00
10th 27. He He - 56.00
11th 24. Jaws - 53.00
12th 30. Downhill - 45.00



never(not before time limit):
1. Warm Up - 14.00
2. Flat Track - 15.00
3. Over and Under - 29.50
4. Uphill Battle - 19.75
5. Long Haul - 30.00
9. Loop-de-Loop - 17.50
10. Serpents Tale - 50.00
11. New Wave - 1:20.00
12. Labyrinth - 53.00
14. Ramp Frenzy - 40.00
15. Precarious - 24.00
17. Headbanger - 42.00
18. Pipe - 31.00
19. Animal Farm - 1:10.00
20. Zig-Zag - 55.00
21. Labyrinth Pro - 2:12.00
22. Labyrinth Pro - 2:10.00
28. Sink - 32.50
29. Bowling - 52.00
32. Tricks Abound - 42.00
33. Hang Tight - 24.50
34. Hooked - 17.00
35. Apple Harvest - 1:12.00
36. Apple Harvest - 1:10.00

[Raven]

1

[Kortsu]

This should have been more configurable by the guesser, like have all levs listed with loads of second breaks. Then again, it's only my opinion.

[Bismuth]

Ok, I'll let new contestants enter but they will obviously have missed the second breaks before, making them disadvantaged.